Wimbledon

Wimbledon Women's Singles Quarter-Final Tips: Swiatek hot favourite to progress

Ukrainian Tennis Player Elina Svitolina
Elina Svitolina will need to serve superbly to test Iga Swiatek...

The women's singles at Wimbledon is now at the last eight stage, and with the outright market competitive, there's plenty to discuss ahead of today's quarter finals...

  • Swiatek still tournament favourite

  • World number one faces Svitolina next

  • Competitive match anticipated between Pegula and Vondrousova


Tournament favourite Swiatek back in action

Following the conclusion of the fourth round matches, Iga Swiatek is now 2.789/5 for the title, but closely behind in the tournament winner market is Elena Rybakina 4.3100/30 and Aryna Sabalenka 5.04/1 as a competitive tournament continues. Swiatek is back in action today with a meeting against Elina Svitolina, on centre court.

Svitolina needs to serve superbly

The world number one is expected to ease to victory, priced at 1.171/6 to do so and make the semi-finals.

Swiatek was tested more than anticipated by Belinda Bencic in round four, although if she had converted more of her break point opportunities, it could have been slightly more straightforward.

Swiatek did have the edge in most in-play metrics against the Swiss, winning a higher percentage of first and second serve points, and having a higher first serve percentage as well.

Possibly the main issue stemming from that win is that it took three hours to get the job done, which is rather untypical for Swiatek, who consistently progresses with minimal fuss on a general basis.

However, Svitolina's epic 11-9 final set tiebreak win over Victoria Azarenka also took a similar length of time, and she won just three points more in the match.

Svitolina's first serve was the foundation to that victory, winning 73% of first serve points and landing it 75% of the time, and she will need to serve just as well again if she is to test Swiatek.

Unfortunately for the Ukrainian, those serve numbers are far in excess of her mean figures on grass over the last couple of years, so such a display against evidently the best player on tour by some distance is pretty unlikely, and that's reflected in the current pre-match price.

Pegula with market edge over Vondrousova

The other quarter-final looks far more competitive on paper. Jessica Pegula was our back-to-lay pick pre-tournament, and the American's outright price should shorten nicely if she can get past Marketa Vondrousova this afternoon.

Pegula is favourite at 1.784/5 to do so, and that looks about right to me. She has better return data than Vondrousova on grass over the last couple of years, with only a very slight deficit on serve.

In addition, Pegula has pretty much breezed into this stage, but Vondrousova has to be respected after beating a higher quality of opponent - wins over Veronika Kudermetova and Donna Vekic were particularly impressive.

These victories reflect Vondrousova's high ceiling, referenced earlier in the tournament, but with grass data giving Pegula a slight edge, it is pretty tough to dispute the market line at the time of writing.

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