Wimbledon

Wimbledon Women's Singles Quarter-Final Tips: Keys going for 10 wins in a row

American Tennis Player Madison Keys
Madison Keys has impressed on grass this year...

After the exit of world number one Iga Swiatek on Tuesday, the women's singles event at Wimbledon has really been shaken up. Dan Weston returns to discuss the latest...

  • Tournament favourite Swiatek exits

  • Rybakina and Jabeur meet in repeat of last year's final

  • In-form Keys shouldn't be discounted


Wimbledon Betting Update: Rybakina new fav

Elena Rybakina is the new tournament winner market favourite for the Wimbledon title following Iga Swiatek's shock loss to Elina Svitolina on Tuesday, with the Pole having no answer to Svitolina's first serve, winning just 18% (11/62) of points when Svitolina landed her first serve.

In the other quarter-final, Marketa Vondrousova benefited from a delayed final set when she was 1-3 down to Jessica Pegula, but won five of the next six games to triumph 6-4 in the decider and set up an all-unseeded semi-final with Svitolina.

Jabeur v Rybakina - 13:30 - Outsider better value

Looking to join them in the semi-finals are today's four quarter-finalists, including the current favorite Rybakina, who is 1.635/8 to get past Ons Jabeur in a repeat of last year's final, which was won by Rybakina but featured virtually reversed pricing.

Rybakina's terrific serve, which has seen her hold 87% on grass across this season and last, is a huge weapon but will be tested by Jabeur, who in 18 grass matches in the same time period has won 46% of points on return.

Jabeur's 6-0 6-3 thrashing of Petra Kvitova in the fourth round was something of a statement win, and Rybakina should be wary of the threat the Tunisian poses. Rybakina has rather eased into this stage, but shouldn't have been troubled by any of her first three opponents, and was the beneficiary of an early retirement by Beatriz Haddad Maia in round four. Jabeur should be a big step up to what she has faced so far.

I think Rybakina should be favourite here, but she does look a little short-priced. It's not much more than a lean, but at current prices, Jabeur looks the better value.

Keys v Sabalenka - 13:30 - Back Keys @ 2.8615/8

The second quarter-final features two big servers, with Madison Keys taking on Aryna Sabalenka, and it's the world number two Sabalenka who is the solid favourite at 1.538/15. Keys wasn't far from the exit door against Mirra Andreeva in round four, but fought back to pick up her ninth win in a row which includes five at Eastbourne to win the title on the South coast.

Sabalenka also had a near-exit earlier in the tournament, against Varvara Gracheva in round two, but has improved since then and has dropped just nine games in four sets subsequently.

Interestingly, Keys has better grass numbers on both serve and return across the last two seasons, and did beat Sabalenka in their only career meeting on the surface two years ago.

Arguably the biggest concern for anyone considering Keys value is Sabalenka's 5-0 record in Slam quarter-finals, while Keys has only played one since May 2019 at the French Open.

Quite surprisingly given how good she is on grass, this is Keys' first Wimbledon quarter-finals since 2015. However, if Keys can serve well, she has a pretty decent chance here in my view and looks fairly generously priced.

Back Madison Keys to Win @ 2.8615/8

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