Wimbledon

Wimbledon Women's Singles Final Tips: Jabeur favourite to go one better than last year

Tunisian Tennis Player Ons Jabeur
Ons Jabeur is favourite again in the Wimbledon final...

It's the women's singles final at Wimbledon on Saturday, and it's Marketa Vondrousova against Ons Jabeur. Dan Weston returns to preview the Championship match...

  • Jabeur shorter-priced than last year's final

  • Vondrousova with easier draw to the final

  • Ons a justified pre-match favourite


Vondrousova v Jabeur - 14:00 - Ons again a deserved favourite

After last year's emotional loss to Elena Rybakina in the final here, Ons Jabeur will likely never have a better chance to erase that moment as she takes on Marketa Vondrousova in the final on Saturday afternoon. In fact, both players have yet to win a Grand Slam, with Vondrousova losing the French Open final in 2019 to Ash Barty, and Jabeur being defeated twice, with the US Open final defeat to Iga Swiatek coming soon after that loss to Rybakina here in July.

For the final last year, Jabeur was priced up at around 1.68/13 pre-match, and the 1.4840/85 about the Tunisian means that she is even shorter-priced here.

The market support is natural, with wins over Aryna Sabalenka, Elena Rybakina and Petra Kvitova in the last three rounds, and only losing two sets in those clashes, both via tiebreaks. In fact, Jabeur has knocked out the tournament favourite twice in a row, so she's clearly playing excellent grass-court tennis and has earned her place the hard way in this final.

If Jabeur has beaten most of the top players in the outright market to get here, Vondrousova has had things slightly easier with her draw. The only top 10 player she faced in her six matches so far has been Jessica Pegula, and a 1-3 deciding set scoreline was turned around following a rain delay against the American. If it hadn't have rained, could Vondrousova have exited that day? We will never know.

Looking at grass court data across last season and this, it's evident that Jabeur deserves to be favourite. She's held serve and broken opponents more - around a 3% edge on each - and this makes the market price pretty justifiable in my view. Throw in the fact that Jabeur has beaten such good players as well makes the market sentiment absolutely logical.

So, what are the causes for optimism for Vondrousova? I think if she's going to overturn the odds, she will need to serve extremely well. On grass, she has a lower first and second serve points won percentage than Jabeur, and twice the double faults per game figures as well.

Against an opponent who has broken opponents almost 40% of the time on average on grass over last season and this, it's clearly a non-negotiable that Vondrousova will need to be something close to her best on serve in order to have a realistic chance of lifting the trophy on Saturday afternoon.

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