Wimbledon Women's Singles Day 5 Tips: Alexandrova to ease past Brengle

• Big names exit on day four

• Alexandrova serve should be too strong

• Vekic underdog against Vondrousova

Świątek shortens following big name exits

Barbora Krejcikova, Veronika Kudermetova and Jelena Ostapenko were the high-profile casualties on day four, while the likes of Jessica Pegula, Elena Rybakina and Donna Vekic progressed - the latter in some fightback from a set and 2-5 down against Sloane Stephens.

These exits have resulted in a shortening of world number one Iga Swiatek's tournament winner odds to 2.942/1, with Aryna Sabalenka 5.79/2 now having the edge for second favourite ahead of Rybakina 6.411/2. Sabalenka still needs to win her second-round match, against Varvara Gracheva, for which she is a strong favourite to do so.

Andreescu and Kalinina fight for likely Jabeur clash

However, there's some fascinating-looking matches in a competitive round two. Bianca Andreescu is 1.84/5 against 26th seed Anhelina Kalinina, which looks about right looking at grass data for the last couple of years.

This year, though, Kalinina has got better all-surface numbers, with a decent edge on return, so this is far from a foregone conclusion. Both players haven't consistently impressed on grass this season, so the winner will face a tough task likely against Ons Jabeur in round three.

Badosa not to be underestimated on grass

At first glance when I saw Marta Kostyuk at 2.447/5 for her match-up with Paula Badosa, I thought it would be value. However, Badosa has decent grass data (combined 105% serve/return points won over the last couple of years) so shouldn't be underestimated despite probably not being a natural grass-courter - the biggest doubt will be fitness, having played just round one here and not previously played since the start of May.

Alexandrova's serve should be enough to dominate Brengle

For a value pick, I'm a big fan of Ekaterina Alexandrova on grass, being something of an expert in quick conditions. She's held serve almost 30% more than opponent Madison Brengle on grass in the last two years, with similar abilities on return.

This sizable serve edge should be more than enough for Alexandrova to progress, and of course the market knows that, pricing her at 1.171/6 to win. General market lines have her at around 1.674/6 giving up a five game head start. There's simply a huge ability gap here.

Confusing pricing for Vondrousova and Vekic

Finally, that statement is less applicable to Marketa Vondrousova and Donna Vekic. It's one of those strange spots where Vekic is less than half the price of Vondrousova in the outrights, yet is a pre-match underdog here at 2.0621/20.

The Croat, as mentioned already, fought back from close to elimination against Sloane Stephens, and has more grass court pedigree over the years. The market looks to be wary of Vekic here for this match given the eventual win yesterday over Stephens, but this could look like a silly underdog price if Vekic isn't fatigued.