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Djokovic into 1.75/7 for the title
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Medvedev price surprisingly increases after draw
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Fritz potential value in weak quarter three
Djokovic picking up further market support
A gift draw for Novak Djokovic in quarter four sees the Serb now trading at 1.75/7 for the title.
He has injury-doubt Nick Kyrgios, Felix Auger-Aliassime, Hubert Hurkacz and Andrey Rublev in his quarter, but none should give Djokovic much trouble in his quest for a fifth consecutive Wimbledon title.
Kyrgios, if fit, could be the one to test him, but the Australian's fitness levels are certainly questionable currently.
Alcaraz drifting following tough quarter one draw
Drifting a little in the outright market is Carlos Alcaraz, with the Spaniard now out to 5.49/2 after picking up some comparatively competent early round opposition but also seeded to face Alexander Zverev early, plus with Frances Tiafoe and Alex De Minaur, who have impressed in the warm-up grass events, plus strong grass-courter (but injured) Matteo Berrettini, and Holger Rune, all featuring in his top quarter.
Unfortunately, while I liked De Minaur's chances of a good run pre-draw, Berrettini as opponent in round two followed by Zverev in round three is about as bad a draw as he could have got.
The market agrees, almost doubling his price to the current 120.0119/1. There's little doubt that the Australian will have to do it the hard way if he is to make the business end of the tournament.
Medvedev should be capable of getting through quarter two
I'm now more keen on Daniil Medvedev at 32.031/1 in the tournament winner market, which is actually bigger than his pre-draw line. He's in quarter two along with Andy Murray, Sebastian Korda, Cameron Norrie and his adversary, Stefanos Tsitsipas, and while Medvedev is out of form, the two Brits and the similarly out of form Tsitsipas shouldn't be a major hurdle for him.
We also have to remember that Medvedev is very strong in quick conditions, which he should get here, and it could well be that the talented Korda might give him the toughest test. The American is now into 46.045/1 and has picked up some market support.
Fritz the pick in quarter three
Finally, the third quarter looks weaker than the others, too, with Jannik Sinner, Taylor Fritz and Casper Ruud headlining. Ruud has deigned not to play on grass so far this season, while Sinner has had some fitness issues. Fritz could have been coming into this with better form, but at least he hasn't overplayed, so I'm surprised to see him drift to 85.084/1.
The problem is that Fritz's tournament winner price will hold big unless Djokovic (in his half of the draw) somehow gets eliminated, so a back-to-lay hasn't got that much upside. The Betfair Sportsbook has Fritz at 5/16.00 for quarter three, which could be worth a little interest.
Recommended bets
Back Daniil Medvedev at 32.031/1
Back Taylor Fritz to win quarter three 5/16.00