Wimbledon Men's Singles Semi-Final Tips: Sinner a handicap option ahead of Djokovic clash

Serbian Tennis Player Novak Djokovic
Novak Djokovic dropped two sets to Jannik Sinner here last year...

The stage is set for men's semi-final day on Friday at Wimbledon, with the top three in the world rankings all taking to the courts at SW19. Dan Weston returns to preview the action...

  • Top three in rankings feature in semi-finals

  • Sinner looking to go one better against Djokovic

  • Alcaraz with market support against Medvedev

Sinner v Djokovic - 13:30 - Jannik can compete

Jannik Sinner is the only non top three player to feature in Friday's semi-finals, and the Italian's task is tough - he needs to defeat Novak Djokovic to make the final. That's Djokovic who is now 33 unbeaten at Wimbledon, and 37 unbeaten if we discount a loss via retirement.

However, Sinner can be heartened a little by being one of only three players who pushed Djokovic to five sets during that 33-match unbeaten run, with the other two proving he is in illustrious company - Rafa Nadal and Roger Federer. Indeed, in last year's quarter-finals here, Sinner was on track for a big shock having won the first two sets 7-5 6-2 against Djokovic, before a familiar script ensued and the Serb reeled off three sets for the loss of just seven games.

To go one better than that quarter-final loss here last year, Sinner will need to be a little more successful on serve against Djokovic on Friday. In that defeat, Djokovic bossed the first serve data, landing it 66% to Sinner's 54%, and winning 82% of first serve points to Sinner's 69%. Those numbers are actually very similar to Djokovic's overall first serve figures on grass over the last two seasons, while Sinner's were a fair bit lower, particularly on those first serve points won - also illustrating the difficulty of the task against Djokovic who is an elite returner.

That, and the incredible unbeaten run at Wimbledon, is why Djokovic is so short at 1.222/9 to take this. Sinner has the talent and could easily run him close again, like last year, but Djokovic just finds a way to get it done. Further, Sinner is yet to play a top-70 opponent here so far, and is likely to find Djokovic simply too big a step up.

However, that doesn't stop us looking at handicap options. I think Sinner has enough in him to take a set here, which is priced up currently at 1.654/6 on the Exchange, very similar to general market pricing.

Back Sinner to win a set @ 1.654/6

Bet now

Alcaraz v Medvedev - 15:30 - Carlos a justified solid favourite

The other semi-final should be fascinating, with Carlos Alcaraz a 1.434/9 favourite to defeat Daniil Medvedev, who just about got past the tournament's surprise package Chris Eubanks in the quarter-finals.

Medvedev did need five sets to beat the American, but in terms of accumulated fatigue, at least the match was quick in relative terms, lasting just three hours. Less positive for him is that he actually won just 46% of points in the match, 23 fewer in total, which is about as low as I've seen for a match winner for a long while. Such a performance level won't do the job against Alcaraz.

The world number one has been functional rather than spectacular here at Wimbledon so far, with only his victory over the semi-retired Jeremy Chardy in round one featuring a 6-2 or better winning set scoreline. He hasn't dominated opposition at all, and could have realistically been pushed more by either Nicolas Jarry or Matteo Berrettini with slightly different circumstances.

Compared to clay, conditions should be a leveller here between the two players. However, Alcaraz's grass data is already a lot better than Medvedev's across the last two seasons, and it's tough to argue too much with his status as a solid market favourite.

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