With grass warm-up events concluding over the next couple of days in Eastbourne and Mallorca, Wimbledon 2021 is drawing near. Dan Weston discusses the contenders for the men's title...
"In fact, Djokovic is a similar price to win Wimbledon than Nadal was to win the French Open, with the outright market currently pricing the Serb at 1.9310/11 to be lifting the trophy in several weeks time."
Djokovic odds-on to add to his Grand Slam collection
Just a couple of weeks after winning the French Open, Novak Djokovic is back in the field for another Grand Slam, this time at Wimbledon. The world number one wasn't the pre-tournament favourite at Roland Garros - that honour, of course, went to Rafa Nadal - but Djokovic certainly is for the upcoming fortnight at SW19.
In fact, Djokovic is a similar price to win Wimbledon than Nadal was to win the French Open, with the outright market currently pricing the Serb at 1.9310/11 to be lifting the trophy in several weeks time. In what is a rather top-heavy men's singles outright market, Daniil Medvedev 8.615/2, Stefanos Tsitsipas 10.09/1, Roger Federer 15.5, Matteo Berrettini 16.015/1 and Alexander Zverev 27.026/1 are the only players priced below 50.049/1.
Top six dominate the outright market
These six players leading the outright market have an implied win percentage of around 90%, suggesting that there's around a 90% chance that the winner will come from these players - the other 122 players in the tournament have a 10% chance between them. If you ever needed any insight into the extent of how dominant the better players on tour are in a best of five-set format in a Grand Slam, this looks like a pretty good example.
Quarter-winner markets a potential outright angle
Following Friday's draw, I'll probably look at potential quarter winner market value, although I'm a little unconvinced about Djokovic's price. As I also discussed in the women's preview, there's a lack of grass data so what I've done to show the levels of the main contenders is to create a chart showing hard/indoor hard metrics in 2021 for the players towards the forefront of the outright market (two-year data used for Roger Federer):-
The intersecting lines illustrate the ATP Tour mean stats for each metric, so any player in the top-right segment are above-average for both serving and returning. Djokovic's numbers are obviously very good, but the likes of Daniil Medvedev and Matteo Berrettini, in particular, look capable of mounting a challenge.
Queen's winner Berrettini one to watch
World number nine Berrettini is a player I'm likely to want to keep onside over the next couple of weeks. His service numbers are exceptional and that's a real advantage on grass - his serve will be extremely difficult to break.
Berrettini lifted the trophy at Queen's Club on grass last week, and was only broken twice in the entire tournament, winning over 75% of service points - hugely impressive numbers.
His profile on grass is pretty much John Isner but with a much better return, and I like the look of his chances. Considering this, let's keep an eye on Berrettini's draw - if he's not in Djokovic's quarter, and ideally not in Medvedev's quarter either, I'll be pretty happy. I'll return during the weekend to discuss the draw in depth and to finalise any outright selections.
Follow Dan on Twitter @TennisRatings
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