Wimbledon

Wimbledon Men's Singles Final Tips: Djokovic favourite to win his 5th consecutive Wimbledon title

Serbian Tennis Player Novak Djokovic
Novak Djokovic is 34 unbeaten at Wimbledon...

The showpiece event of the ATP Tour is upon us - the men's singles final of Wimbledon takes place on Sunday with Novak Djokovic facing Carlos Alcaraz for the title. Dan Weston previews the match...

  • Top two seeds clash in Wimbledon final

  • Djokovic price almost unmoved from last week

  • Alcaraz needing to stop Djokovic's 34 match unbeaten record here


Alcaraz v Djokovic - 14:00 - Market support with the underdog

So, the top two seeds and the top two in the pre-tournament outright market have made it to the final at Wimbledon. If anyone felt that the new era following three of the traditional elite four being either retired or on the wane meant that the tour would create a new batch of Slam contenders, it currently looks like there's just one new one - Alcaraz - with Djokovic looking as imperious as ever. He could easily have 5+ more Slam titles to his name before he retires.

Djokovic has been the strong tournament favourite prior to and throughout this year's Wimbledon. He started the event at around 1.758/11, and has been consistently trading between 1.608/13 and 1.654/6 over the last week or so. However, that price arguably should have shortened given the necessity to redistribute implied win percentage from players knocked out in week two, and it hasn't really. Even though Djokovic is the favourite for the title as I'll go on to discuss shortly, the market has been much more in support of Alcaraz, possibly given the nature of world number one's win over Daniil Medvedev in the semi-final.

At the time of writing, Djokovic is 1.574/7 to lift the trophy, so the price is barely any departure from his price over the last week or so. The implied win percentage needing to be redistributed from the second week field has largely gone in favour of Alcaraz, who has shortened from around 4.57/2 for the title to a current 2.747/4 against the Serb.

History in Djokovic's favour

For Alcaraz to win, he needs to overturn Djokovic's 34 match unbeaten run at SW19, where he has won the last four tournaments he has entered. In those 34 matches, Djokovic has dropped just 18 sets, winning 102, which are daunting numbers for anyone considering backing Alcaraz here.

Another negative for Alcaraz backers is the French Open semi-final, where he suffered fitness issues and was demolished by Djokovic in the final two sets of their four-set encounter. If Djokovic can do that on clay, where Alcaraz has far more pedigree, it doesn't bode well for Alcaraz's supporters to consider what Djokovic do on grass, a surface where he has continually overwhelmed his opponents.

Saying that, grass court numbers over last season and this suggest that the market isn't far off with the price. Both players have won around 39% of return points, but Djokovic (74%) has a big serve points won edge with Alcaraz just shy of 70%. So, you could possibly make a case for Djokovic being a few ticks shorter, but really nothing which is particularly actionable. At prices, I'd rather be on Djokovic than Alcaraz - he has history on his side too, plus far more big-match experience - but as mentioned, it's not a price I feel is hugely out of line at all.

As far as other angles go, given Djokovic's experience of the big occasion plus having the French Open semi-final in mind too, those minded to look at in-play markets could consider Djokovic at a bigger price if he loses the opening set, or is something like a set and break down where his price will be markedly different to what it currently stands at now. Those are a couple of options for Exchange users who like to trade or take bigger prices in-play.

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Prices quoted in copy are correct at time of publication but liable to change.