Wimbledon

Wimbledon Men's Final 2023: Back Djokovic to win 3-2 @ 5/1

Novak Djokovic at Wimbledon
Novak Djokovic is the rightful favourite but will likely be pushed

The match odds look about right, writes Jack Houghton, especially considering Djokovic's big-match experience

  • Limited historic data nonetheless points towards longer match

  • Djokovic can win in deciding set at 6.25/1

  • Alcaraz can push to game count above 40


Djokovic rightful favourite @ 1.574/7

The rapid demise of pre-tournament 34.033/1-tip Daniil Medvedev in the semi-finals was disappointing, although the preview as a whole has faired well, identifying three of the four semi-finalists.

We are left, then, with Novak Djokovic (1.574/7) and Carlos Alcaraz (2.747/4). Of the pair, Alcaraz marginally looks value according to my ratings, but not by much. I have him as a 2.68/5-shot but - as we have seen before with Djokovic - his big-game experience means that the bare ratings probably don't do him justice. The odds, therefore, are probably about right.

Value, though, can still be found in the side markets where, despite the paucity of historical data, some trends are already emerging.

Number of sets

To date, head-to-head, the pair have used 88% of the sets available to them, suggesting that Alcaraz can make Djokovic work for this.

Backing Five Sets at 3.412/5 is the value call.

Back Five Sets at 3.412/5

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Set Betting

With this in mind, supporting Djokovic to win 3-2 at around 6.25/1 makes sense.

When the pair met in Madrid in 2022, Alcaraz showed that he was able to scrap for the clutch points and, whilst Alcaraz eventually capitulated in the semi-final match-up between the pair at Roland Garros, the first two sets were much more closely fought over.

Djokovic will likely win this in the end, but don't expect it to be easy.

Back Djokovic to win 3-2 at 6.25/1

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Total Games

Sportsbook odds of 10/11 that the pair will play more than 40 games looks value. Using a percentage-of-available-games measure, the pair use an average of 69% of the available games. That suggests an over/under midpoint of around 45.0 games.

Back More Than 40 Games at 10/11

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This one should be keenly contested, and should go long.

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