Novak Djokovic takes on Matteo Berrettini in the final on Sunday and Dan Weston thinks the underdog could give the Serb a fright or two...
"We can get 1.9210/11 on Berrettini getting a 5.5 game head start on the Exchange - a line Shapovalov was able to cover against Djokovic on Friday - and this looks a reasonable spot given the Italian's strong serve, in a final which could be quite a bit closer than many might anticipate."
Berrettini arguably more dominant in Friday's semi-finals
Matteo Berrettini and Novak Djokovic won their semi-finals on Friday with relative ease, with Berrettini's victory over Hubert Hurkacz arguably more dominant than Djokovic's against Denis Shapovalov, despite dropping a tie-break set. The Italian won 57% of points in the match against the conqueror of both Roger Federer and Daniil Medvedev in a strong display, with Djokovic managing just 53% of points against Shapovalov in a tight 7-6 7-5 7-5 victory.
Impressive throughout so far for Berrettini at Wimbledon 2021
The impressive nature of Berrettini's path to the final is illustrated in his tournament stats across his six wins - he's won just over 73% of service points, and 39% on return, which are very solid numbers indeed for a grass tournament. He's served an ace per game on average, with his strong serve holding 95% so far.
As for Djokovic, his numbers are even better but not hugely so - he's winning around 75% of service points and 42% on return to get to this stage - and across their six wins each so far, there's not an abundance between the duo.
If we look at all-surface 2021 data, Berrettini has actually been the better server with Djokovic again having a decent edge on return, but the point looks clear - there isn't a huge amount between the players statistically.
Gap between the duo smaller than in previous meetings
Djokovic has won both their previous meetings pretty comfortably, in the round robin stage at the 2019 ATP Finals and in this year's French Open quarter-final, but I think that Berrettini has improved rapidly since that 2019 meeting and grass represents a better opportunity for Berrettini to keep it close against the world number one than clay at Roland Garros did.
Given reputation, ranking and data, it's obviously unsurprising that Djokovic is favourite but I do think he's short-priced at 1.232/9 against a very strong server on a clearly apparent upward ability curve. We can get 1.9210/11 on Berrettini getting a 5.5 game head start on the Exchange - a line Shapovalov was able to cover against Djokovic on Friday - and this looks a reasonable spot given the Italian's strong serve, in a final which could be quite a bit closer than many might anticipate.
Follow Dan on Twitter @TennisRatings
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Dan Weston's 2021 P&L:
Staked - 65 pts
Returned - 64.65 pts