Wimbledon Day Two Men's Tips: Mannarino could test rusty Federer

French Tennis Player Adrian Mannarino
Adrian Mannarino is a good grass-courter...

With rain affecting the opening day, there's an abundance of matches on Tuesday's schedule. Our tennis columnist, Dan Weston, returns to discuss the day ahead...

"Priced at this line, the Swiss legend looks vulnerable against the Frenchman, who is a strong grass-courter and generally does pretty well in quicker conditions."

Djokovic shortens following Tsitsipas exit

There were a number of talking points in yesterday's action, which was shortened by the traditional British weather. British wild card Jack Draper took the first set from the odds-on pre-tournament favourite, Novak Djokovic, before the world number one managed a 3-1 victory, but Stefanos Tsitsipas was unable to conjure a comeback as he lost 3-0 to Frances Tiafoe. Later on in the schedule, Andy Murray delighted British support with a four-set win over Nikoloz Basilashvili, keeping on course for a third-round clash with Denis Shapovalov.

Despite being pushed more than anticipated by Draper, Djokovic's position in the outright market has strengthened further. Prior to the day's play, he was priced around 1.804/5, and that's now shortened to 1.705/7. Daniil Medvedev is second favourite, at 9.208/1, and the Russian starts his tournament today against Jan-Lennard Struff.

Medvedev among short-priced favourites today

Medvedev is one of a number of short-priced favourites, with the likes of Matteo Berrettini, John Isner, Alexander Zverev and Lorenzo Sonego joining him as huge favourites in what look like reasonable mismatches for their first-round encounters.

Mannarino very capable of giving Federer tough opposition

Roger Federer is also fairly short-priced at 1.201/5 for his match with Adrian Mannarino. Priced at this line, the Swiss legend looks vulnerable against the Frenchman, who is a strong grass-courter and generally does pretty well in quicker conditions.

Mannarino reached the semi-final of the Mallorca warm-up event last week and has a strong long-term grass record.

I wonder whether the market is being influenced by two things here. Firstly, simply that it's Federer playing, and secondly, that Mannarino had a dreadful clay season recently. The first point is dangerous - Federer's results this year and lack of activity lead to scepticism that he's close to the Federer of old, while Mannarino was always likely to have a poor clay season, simply because he's not very good on slow surfaces at this level.

The Sportsbook is offering even money on Mannarino +6.5 games, and while Federer has covered that line both times they've met at Wimbledon previously, he was priced at 1.031/33 or below to win on both occasions - the ability differential between the duo should be narrower today. I expect a reasonably serve-orientated encounter and for Mannarino to give a reasonable account of himself.

Ruusuvuori with potential for underdog victory

One match where I think that there could be a slight upset is Emil Ruusuvuori versus Marcos Giron, with the Finn 2.3611/8 to get an underdog victory. My leaning towards Ruusuvuori isn't based on grass-court data - as with most players, we don't have much - but because his numbers indoors at Challenger level in recent years have been excellent. He's won over 80% of his matches indoors so it's reasonable to assume he likes quicker conditions, and his numbers indoors are better than Giron's at that level.

Cilic needing to prove he's close to his previous best

Finally, if we are looking at another short-priced favourite, Marin Cilic looks rather short at 1.071/14 for his match with Salvatore Caruso. This isn't necessarily because I particularly rate the Italian, but simply because in my view, the current version of Cilic isn't close to the player who reached the final at SW19 in 2017. His numbers this year have generally been uninspiring and it would be a brave bettor who lumps on Cilic at such a low price today.

***

Follow Dan on Twitter @TennisRatings

Daily Offer - Get a £5 Free Bet on Multiples

Place £20 worth of multiples over the course of a day, and, after the bets have settled, you'll get a free £5 to use on multiples. Bets must settle before 23:59 on the day they're placed. No opt-in required, T&Cs apply.

Get a Free £/€20 Exchange Bet

  • Join Now - Open account using promo code VAL225
  • Bet - Place a £/€20 Bet on the Exchange
  • Earn We'll Refund You £/€20 If the Bet Loses

T&Cs apply.

Discover the latest articles

Read past articles