Wimbledon Day Six Women's Tips: Sasnovich can compete against potentially fatigued Kerber

German Tennis Player Angelique Kerber
Angelique Kerber could be fatigued for her match today...

We have eight more third round matches on the women's singles schedule at Wimbledon today, and with a fascinating day's play in prospect, Dan Weston is back to preview the schedule...

"In that match against Kerber, Sorribes Tormo didn’t take her chances - the Spaniard was 7/20 on break point opportunities - and I’m not sure whether that’s a positive for Kerber, along with the potential fatigue which could manifest itself for a veteran player after such a long encounter against a return-orientated player."

Tournament favourite Barty expected to progress

The biggest-name exit of yesterday's action at SW19 was Garbine Muguruza, who was defeated in three sets by Ons Jabeur after taking the first set. The Tunisian has now moved to 16.015/1 sixth favourite, with Ash Barty still leading the market, but coming under a little pressure at 7.26/1 from Aryna Sabalenka 9.08/1 and Iga Swiatek 9.89/1 following third-round wins for the duo yesterday.

Barty faces Katerina Siniakova in the evening match tonight and possibly isn't far from value at 1.282/7 to get the better of the Czech player - Barty is still the best player in the tournament and justifies her status at the top of the outright market.

Kerber vulnerable after epic second round match

Moving into the top 10 in the outright market as well is Angelique Kerber, with the German now priced at 20.019/1 following her victory in an epic match against Sara Sorribes Tormo which took in excess of three hours.

In that match against Kerber, Sorribes Tormo didn't take her chances - the Spaniard was 7/20 on break point opportunities - and I'm not sure whether that's a positive for Kerber, along with the potential fatigue which could manifest itself for a veteran player after such a long encounter against a return-orientated player.

Today, Kerber faces Aliaksandra Sasnovich who, via retirement, defeated Serena Williams in round one and then nicked a tight two-setter against Nao Hibino as a solid pre-match favourite.

In terms of accumulated fatigue, Sasnovich should be much fresher than Kerber who is just 1.211/5 to get the win here. I think Sasnovich can cover a generous game handicap line at 1.824/5 with a 5.5 game head start - make no mistake though, this isn't necessarily a pro-Sasnovich play, but more of an anti-Kerber one.

Raducanu could continue British interest against Cirstea

I also think that Magda Linette could produce an underdog win at 2.245/4 for her clash with the Spanish clay-courter, Paula Badosa, who really still has plenty to prove away from clay, while Karolina Muchova looks slightly generously-priced as a favourite over Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova - the Czech player, Muchova, is on an upward curve and her strong serve will be very difficult to pressurise consistently on grass.

We also have the final British player in the draw in action today, with Emma Raducanu facing Sorana Cirstea. The 2.789/5 about Raducanu shows the respect that she's getting from the market against a main-tour regular, and that market respect is justified given Raducanu's impressive ITF numbers on other surfaces and her victories over Vitalia Diatchenko and Marketa Vondrousova. It wouldn't be a major shock if Raducanu continued British interest beyond this match.

***

Follow Dan on Twitter @TennisRatings

Daily Offer - Get a £5 Free Bet on Multiples

Place £20 worth of multiples over the course of a day, and, after the bets have settled, you'll get a free £5 to use on multiples. Bets must settle before 23:59 on the day they're placed. No opt-in required, T&Cs apply.

Get a Free £/€20 Exchange Bet

  • Join Now - Open account using promo code VAL225
  • Bet - Place a £/€20 Bet on the Exchange
  • Earn We'll Refund You £/€20 If the Bet Loses
Bet now

T&Cs apply.

Discover the latest articles

Read past articles