Wimbledon Day Six Men's Tips: Federer surprisingly accurately priced for Norrie clash

Swiss Tennis Player Roger Federer
Roger Federer could be tested by Cameron Norrie tonight...

Third round action at Wimbledon continues on Saturday with another eight matches on the schedule. Our tennis columnist, Dan Weston, returns to discuss the day ahead...

"Cameron Norrie might put more of a fight up this evening. The Brit is 6-1 on grass this season after reaching the final of Queen's Club several weeks ago, and that defeat in the final in what was a very close match against top-ten opposition in Matteo Berrettini is far from a disgrace."

Murray exits as Djokovic shortens in the outright market

Andy Murray's 2021 Wimbledon journey was ended in comprehensive fashion last night with a straightforward defeat to Denis Shapovalov and taking just eight games from the Canadian in the process. In terms of British interest, Murray's exit leaves just Cameron Norrie in the men's singles draw after Dan Evans also was beaten on Friday evening, at the hands of the rapidly improving American, Sebastian Korda.

Novak Djokovic got the better of Denis Kudla, who as expected gave a decent account of himself but still lost in straight sets, and that was enough to shorten his price by six ticks, with the world number one now standing at 1.645/8 in the outright market.

Medvedev strong favourite to defeat Cilic

Second and third favourites for the title, Danill Medvedev and Roger Federer, are both in action in the later games of today's schedule, so we might see some movement on the outright market by tonight depending on results.

Medvedev looks priced accurately at 1.222/9 to get the better of the veteran Marin Cilic, who has more of a grass-court pedigree but is not particularly close to the level of the Russian on other surfaces.

Federer facing an upgrade in opposition for Norrie clash

Speaking of grass court pedigree, it doesn't get much better than Federer, who has rather scraped his way into round three.

Adrian Mannarino was arguably playing the better tennis when he slipped on court against the Swiss legend and was forced to retire in round one, while veteran Richard Gasquet put up a little resistance but was not anticipated to mount a significant challenge.

Cameron Norrie might put more of a fight up this evening. The Brit is 6-1 on grass this season after reaching the final of Queen's Club several weeks ago, and that defeat in the final in what was a very close match against top-ten opposition in Matteo Berrettini is far from a disgrace.

Following that up, Norrie has dropped one set en route to this stage - a tiebreak loss to Lucas Pouille - and this should be Federer's biggest test so far.

I priced Federer at 1.558/15, which is pretty close to the market line at 1.528/15. As I've written a few times in the last week, my expectations on him here are fairly conservative, with his results this year indicating he has a fair bit to prove that he's remotely close to the Federer of old.

In advance of the market developing I thought that Federer might have been shorter-priced, with his reputation seducing the market, but fair play to the Exchange market - I think they've got this about right.

Auger-Aliassime slight favourite for competitive encounter with Kyrgios

That's pretty much the theme for today's men's action. The heavy favourites look fairly accurately priced - Taylor Fritz against Alexander Zverev could be some slight handicap value but not hugely so, while the competitive encounters such as Hubert Hurkacz versus Alexander Bublik, and arguably the most competitive clash of the lot, Felix Auger-Aliassime against Nick Kyrgios, also look like being priced the right way around too, with no false favourites.

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Follow Dan on Twitter @TennisRatings

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