Wimbledon Day Four Women's Tips: Pliskova's strong serve can help cover game handicap

Sabalenka almost shocked by Brit Boulter

A number of favourites exited the tournament yesterday, including Amanda Anisimova, Bianca Andreescu, Ekaterina Alexandrova and Sofia Kenin, while Aryna Sabalenka managed to avert a huge shock, needing three sets to get the better of the Brit, Katie Boulter. Boulter took the first set 6-4, and put real pressure on Sabalenka at *4-3 in the final set - she failed to take six break point chances - and the Belarussian will be delighted to have got through a much tougher test than she probably anticipated.

The outright market has viewed this as a real negative, with Sabalenka drifting to 10.09/1 despite winning the match, and this now means that Ash Barty 6.86/1 is the only player in single-digit pricing to win the tournament. The Australian faces Anna Blinkova today in her second round match, and it would a be a real surprise if she didn't progress with minimum fuss - she's the shortest-priced favourite in the women's competition today.

Raducanu looking to back up Diatchenko victory

Today's women's schedule looks much more competitive than the men's - how many times have we said that - and there certainly aren't many of the mismatches which are clearly apparent in the men's tournament. Marketa Vondrousova is one of the shorter favourites at 1.402/5 for her match with the Brit, Emma Raducanu, who really impressed in her defeat of Vitalia Diatchenko yesterday - it will be fascinating to see how Raducanu backs that up, and I think she has some solid long-term potential.

Kerber potentially vulnerable against Sorribes Tormo

There are also some fascinating match-ups, with Angelique Kerber looking vulnerable at 1.3130/100 for her clash with Sara Sorribes Tormo. Of course, Kerber has more of a grass-court pedigree but Sorribes Tormo has been far better than her on tour this season and has markedly improved away from clay - so I wouldn't write off the Spaniard here.

Two players who shouldn't be likely to perform well on grass are Yulia Putintseva and Paula Badosa, and they meet today as well. Putintseva has a mediocre career record on the surface, while Badosa is much more comfortable on a clay court. The market has Badosa at 1.594/7, probably due to her strong run on clay in recent months, and that looks short-priced to me given her unspectacular record away from clay.

Pliskova's serve should help keep her match close

I also like the chances of Krystina Pliskova on the game handicap against Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova. The lower-profile Pliskova twin still retains a very strong serve - she's held serve around 78% of the time on grass in the last three years - and this should help her keep it close at least in what is likely to be a serve-orientated match-up.

Pavluychenkova has below a 50% career winrate on the surface so I can't help thinking the market is also influenced here by French Open performances on clay courts - she's 1.3030/100 to get the win and that looks short, in my view.

Pliskova +4.5 games is 1.875/6 on the Exchange, which looks a reasonable enough option in my view.

In other matches, it will be interesting to see whether Coco Vandeweghe - a real grass court specialist in the past - is still up to that level against Katerina Siniakova, while I wouldn't be surprised if Marta Kostyuk picked up an underdog victory at 2.186/5 against Anastasija Sevastova. Kostyuk has a lot of future upside, not to mention current ability, and she looks the better value in that clash.

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