Wimbledon Day Four Men's Tips: Dimitrov looking like value despite fitness question mark

Bulgarian Tennis Player Grigor Dimitrov
Grigor Dimitrov has greater grass court pedigree than Alexander Bublik...

Second round action at Wimbledon continues with the schedule still catching up after the rain delays. Dan Weston returns to discuss the bottom half of the men's draw...

"Looking at long-term data, the Bulgarian is a strong grass courter, running at almost 104% combined service/return points won on the surface in his career, and reached the semi-final here in 2014."

Murray just about gets past Otte in five-setter

There are still a handful of second round matches from the top half of the men's draw to be played today, but there's also a full set of bottom half matches today as the tournament organisers hope to get back on schedule from those rain delays earlier in the week.

Yesterday, Andy Murray just about got the job done over Oscar Otte - with the German, as predicted, putting up a good fight - while tournament favourite Novak Djokovic got the job done easily to progress. There was this strange situation where Djokovic was safely into round three before some players in the women's tournament had even got their first round matches started, which illustrates the benefit to being one of the big names - there are no byes here, but the scheduling doesn't appear equal at all.

Numerous heavy favourites on day four

Looking to join Djokovic in round three today are the likes of Matteo Berrettini, Felix Auger-Aliassime, Nick Kyrgios, Alexander Zverev and Daniil Medvedev who are all priced below 1.201/5 for their matches in what looks like a rather one-sided day four in many cases.

It will be interesting to see how Kyrgios can back up his epic against Ugo Humbert, while it's also worth pointing out that John Isner's exit yesterday has really helped Berrettini in terms of making his path to the latter stages easier and avoiding a high variance, serve-orientated match in round three.

Dimitrov potential value over Bublik

I'm going for one of the more even-money clashes on the schedule today for today's recommendation, with the Alexander Bublik versus Grigor Dimitrov match in focus. Dimitrov is the very marginal underdog, at 2.0621/20, to get the win.

Looking at long-term data, the Bulgarian is a strong grass courter, running at almost 104% combined service/return points won on the surface in his career, and reached the semi-final here in 2014. Indoors, he's also got better numbers from a more recent sample too.

Numbers-wise, Dimitrov looks like he should be a solid favourite here, although of course his match against Fernando Verdasco in round one was his first since the French Open when he retired against Marcos Giron.

However, the market price looks too big even taking into account that question mark over his fitness. Dimitrov picked up a deserved win over Verdasco in that round one match, and while Bublik impressed in beating Mikhail Kukushkin, the Kazakh veteran isn't much of a test these days.

Norrie favourite to yield another British victory

In other matches, I think Jordan Thompson could provide a decent test to Kei Nishikori at 4.10, and it wouldn't surprise me if the Australian pushed Nishikori the distance - and it's worth noting that Nishikori's fifth set record in Grand Slams is exceptional.

There's also British action again on day four with Cameron Norrie a solid 1.341/3 favourite to get the better of Alex Bolt, and this looks about right. Norrie made the final of Queen's Club several weeks ago, beating opponents of a higher calibre than Bolt, so it would be a surprise if Norrie didn't join Andy Murray as being British players making it through to round three.


Follow Dan on Twitter @TennisRatings

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