Wimbledon Daily Double: Wawrinka and Struff can surprise on day one

The players are at the All England Club once again for the grass court major, as Wimbledon 2022 kicks off on Monday with 32 matches from the top half of the men's draw.

Conditions at Wimbledon appear to be slower than ever these days, with only 81% holds of serve in the last two years here, which makes it some way slower than the grass events held in the last few weeks.

In Stuttgart there was a huge 88% holds of serve and 69% of its matches featured at least one tie break, while in Majorca there were 87% holds, in Halle 86% holds and even Rosmalen had 85% holds of serve this year.

The British events were slower: 82% at Queen's and at Eastbourne and I can't imagine that the All England Club will have tried to increase the speed of the grass this year after slowing it down over the last two decades or so.

As far as underdog winners are concerned, it's pretty typical for a major at 25% on average over the last eight years, while round one alone has averaged 23% over the last eight editions.

My task for week one of Wimbledon 2022, as was the case at the French Open, is to find a daily double of value bets and there are plenty of options on day one.

The forecast doesn't look great for Monday, with showers and light rain expected in the morning, but dying out by the afternoon, so play shouldn't be too badly affected.

Struff can start quickly against Alcaraz

The first bet that I like today is to take Jan-Lennard Struff in some way against Carlos Alcaraz, who's very inexperienced on grass and he's also been suffering from an elbow injury that meant he didn't play at Queen's Club.

He played a couple of matches at the Hurlingham Club a few days ago and lost both: to Frances Tiafoe and more worryingly (for him) to Casper Ruud (both in straight sets) and he said on Saturday:

"A week ago, I couldn't train at all. I came [here] uncertain whether I was going to be able to play normally. These days that I have been able to train here I have felt quite good... there are many players who play better on grass than me."

In the last eight main level matches that he's played against top-10 ranked opponents, Struff has won the first set five times

Struff might be one of them, or at least the German is capable of making this very close, and I like the idea of backing him to win the opening set at 3.02/1, given Alcaraz's lack of grass matches and also that Struff often starts quickly.

In the last eight main level matches that he's played against top-10 ranked opponents, Struff has won the first set five times, but only won two of the eight matches, so I'm happy to side with the big serving German to win the opener here.

There are lots of contenders for the second leg of Monday's daily double, among them: Albert Ramos, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (over games) and Andrea Vavassori (over games), but as well as Alcaraz, I'll take on Jannik Sinner on day one.

Sinner with plenty to prove on grass

Sinner has played eight career matches on grass and lost the last six of them (the most recent six) and he was a decent favourite for the last three grass matches he played (and lost).

The Italian hasn't been in the best of form of late anyway, failing to make a semi final on the tour since last October and now he's changed his coaching set-up again, bringing in Darren Cahill to his team.

That may work out well for Sinner long-term, but for now he lost again on grass in Eastbourne last week (to Tommy Paul) and his stats on grass plus his general demeanour on a grass court suggest he's too short against Stan Wawrinka.

Sinner's eight career matches on grass have seen him win only 62% of his service points (combined service points won/return points won = 99) and amass a hold/break total of 98 and half of those eight matches have been in qualifying.

In the four matches he's played at main level on grass Sinner has held serve just 71% of the time

In the four matches he's played at main level on grass Sinner has held serve just 71% of the time and his combined service points won/return points won total is just 95.

Wawrinka wouldn't class grass as his favourite surface, but he's held serve 87% of the time on grass, with his return game letting him down a little (only 16% breaks).

His numbers are still better than Sinner's though and he's beaten Sinner in both prior career meetings, so he'll be confident in the match-up.

This one has the feel of a long match about it and Sinner may win it on energy levels (although I'm far from convinced about Sinner's stamina over five sets), but Wawrinka to win a couple of sets (+1.5 sets) is odds-against 2.1011/10 and that looks the bet.

So, on day one I'll try for a 6.353/10 double on Struff to win set 1 and Wawrinka +1.5 sets.