Find Me a 5/1 Wimbledon Winner: Nakashima can push Kyrgios close

I do like a challenge, me. Which is fortunate because - inspired by our long-shot golf tipping column Find Me a 100.099/1 Winner - I've been set the task in this second week of Wimbledon to come up with a 6.05/1 winner every day.

Having been denied a few times last week with the second leg of my doubles letting me down I've now been charged with the task of getting a minimum odds return of 6.05/1 as the action hots up at The All England Club.

And I'm not wild on any of the underdogs on Monday, but the one that could at least test the favourite is Brandon Nakashima.

I said the other day that Nakashima is often at his best when redirecting pace from big servers and in all of his career matches against the ones in my database he's 10-3 win/loss.

He's beaten Sam Querrey four times (twice this grass swing) and he's also taken down the likes of John Isner (in straight sets at the US Open last year), Milos Raonic, Maxime Cressy and Reilly Opelka, so big servers hold no fear for Nakashima.

And they don't come too much bigger than Nick Kyrgios, who hit 218kph (135mph) against Stefanos Tsitsipas in a predictably ill-tempered affair on Saturday.

I said that I expected Kyrgios to win that match and duly did, but he finds it easy to get pumped for matches against the elite players and I wonder if facing Nakashima on a Monday afternoon will see him bring the same level.

I got the feeling in that Tsitsipas match that had the Greek not allowed NK to get under his skin that he could have nicked the fourth set and the result could well have been different.

As it stands, Kyrgios is now a 1.330/100 chance to make the quarter finals and for me that's a tad short in this match-up given the ups and downs that are frequent in the Kyrgios personality.

Kyrgios only breaks serve 13% of the time on grass and only took two of 14 opportunities against Tsitsipas, so the bet for me here is a perfectly priced 6.05/1 on Nakashima to win set one 7-6.

De Minaur and Fritz strong favourites to progress

My two longstanding outrights, Alex De Minaur and Taylor Fritz are both short prices to make the quarter finals against Cristian Garin and Jason Kubler respectively and it's hard to make too much of a case for Garin in particular.

De Minaur beat Garin two weeks ago in Eastbourne and he's won all seven sets he's played against Garin, so I like the Aussie's chance in that one, while Fritz might be lucky again with the draw.

Kubler, whose career has been blighted by injuries (six knee surgeries) had never played a five set match until he beat Jack Sock in over four hours on Saturday, so his stamina could well be severely tested.

The former number one ranked junior has held 93% of the time so far this Wimbledon (main draw) and if he's fit enough he might present a fair challenge to Fritz, who was excellent on serve against Alex Molcan in round three.

Van de Zandschulp with something to prove versus elite opposition

Fritz should rise to the occasion in that one, as should Rafael Nadal against the dangerous Botic van de Zandschulp.

Nadal is 46-6 win/loss in the fourth round of majors, with the most recent defeat coming back in 2017 here at Wimbledon to Gilles Muller (15-13 in the fifth).

He stepped it up in round three against Lorenzo Sonego and looked better than he did in rounds one and two, but some of that was down to Sonego being really poor on the day.

On his best day, Van de Zandschulp could cause some damage to Nadal on grass, but he's only held 83% of the time this grass swing, which is very average indeed, and I'm far from convinced about his mentality.

Nadal is 46-6 win/loss in the fourth round of majors

He often starts matches really slowly and on many occasions his body language is awful, with regular moans, shrugs of the shoulders and complaints to the umpire about some minor noise somewhere putting him off.

I'm harbouring big doubts about his heart and desire at the top level and he has much to prove against the very best players in the world for me, so I don't envisage him beating Nadal here.