Find me a 5/1 Wimbledon Winner: In-form Fritz can stun Nadal

Sean Calvert
05 July 2022

Sean Calvert thinks that Fritz has the game to beat Nadal on grass

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The remaining quarter finals of the men's singles at Wimbledon 2022 are set for Wednesday and Sean Calvert likes the chances of an underdog on day 10...

"Fritz has the power to make defence very difficult for Nadal and with first strike tennis getting more reward on grass than pretty much any other surface..."

We've got two intriguing quarter finals matches in prospect on Wednesday at Wimbledon 2022 and I wonder how Nick Kyrgios will fare against Cristian Garin?

I said the other day that Kyrgios finds it hard to get pumped for matches like the one he faced against Brandon Nakashima and that proved to be the case.

We were unlucky with the set one tie break bet in that match, with Kyrgios calling the trainer out towards the end of an even set and he struggled to serve at that point.

Nick Kyrgios Stuttgart 2022.jpg

Anyone that took the overs would have had a comfortable winner on their hands and the same question arises of this Garin match - will Kyrgios be up for it?

You'd think that he might, given that it's a major quarter final and he's never made a semi final at this level in his career so far, but you can rarely make that sort of assumption with Kyrgios.

His body will most likely start to fail him as he goes deeper into this tournament and there seems to be some sort of a problem with the shoulder, although who knows how serious it is.

For the record, he said: "I woke up [after Tsitsipas] and had some shoulder pain. I've played so much tennis in the last month-and-a-half. I knew it was time for my body to feel some niggles. I think that is normal at this stage of the event. This is something I will manage and mentally I deal with these problems much better now.

"I knew today I wasn't feeling 100% but mentally I stayed quite calm, knowing I wouldn't be serving full out for the whole five sets. You know I took some painkillers."

If we look at the stats from the Tsitsipas match, Kyrgios served at an average speed of 196kph, but in the Nakashima match it dropped to 191 - just 5kph faster than Nakashima's average.

From a Garin point of view, he's got a decent record against big servers, beating John Isner (twice, both on hard courts), Matteo Berrettini, Reilly Opelka, and Sam Querrey (the latter three on clay), so he shouldn't be fazed by the challenge that Kyrgios presents.

Cristian Garin Rio 2020.jpg

The Chilean showed great heart in coming from the brink of defeat against Alex De Minaur on Monday, although it should be noted that ADM's serve dropped off massively in that match, from 62% in set one down to 50% or so in the next three sets.

Like the Nakashima match, I expect this to be tougher for Kyrgios than the layers do, with the Aussie a 1.251/4 chance, but assuming that there is a problem with the shoulder it's hard to see that being any better in this match than it was the last.

The one issue that Garin won't be used to and will have to deal with is the gamesmanship that NK brings to the court and he admitted as much after the Nakashima match.

"At the end of the fourth I threw away that service game and used 'rope-a-dope' tactics. I wanted to throw him off a bit and in the fifth it ended up working."

Kyrgios is frequently on the lookout for little things (like arguing with the umpire before his opponent serves) that might just put the opponent off and it's worked for him against both Tsitsipas and Nakashima.

He'll certainly try it again if he needs to against Garin and we'll have to see if the Chilean is prepared for it.

Garin has certainly been in good form on return of serve this fortnight, breaking 33% of the time and winning 44% of return points, but it must be noted that he's faced no one with a big serve so far this tournament.

If Kyrgios isn't fit I could see Garin winning this, but more likely is another long match and over 40.5 games at 2.255/4 can be one leg of a double today.

Fritz has the game to shock Nadal

My two remaining outrights, Taylor Fritz and Rafael Nadal clash in the second quarter final of the day and on current form you have to give a decent chance to the underdog.

This is a repeat of the Indian Wells final from earlier this year when both men were struggling physically and Fritz won it at pretty much the same price he is today and in slower conditions.

So, although that match was very much affected by the fitness of both men, Fritz won't have any fear of beating Nadal in a big match - something that couldn't be said of Lorenzo Sonego and Botic van de Zandschulp, both of whom weren't up to it mentally.

Fritz won't have any fear of beating Nadal in a big match

If we take the grass court stats of Fritz into account, he's playing at a very high level and won't get a much better chance to take down Nadal at a major than this.

His hold/break total in the 10 matches he's played on grass this season is 114 and his combined service points won/return points won total is 111 - both excellent and that puts in right in contention here.

In Nadal's last 10 on grass he's on a stellar 121 hold/break total and 111 in his combined service points won/return points won, which is the same as Fritz.

Fritz has the power to make defence very difficult for Nadal and with first strike tennis getting more reward on grass than pretty much any other surface I don't mind the price on Fritz today.

The double of Fritz and over games in Garin/Kyrgios pays 6.75 if successful.