Wimbledon Betting: How to enjoy a profitable fortnight on the Betfair Exchange

Novak Djokovic playing at Wimbledon
Novak Djokovic is the Wimbledon men's singles favourite

With Wimbledon starting next week Bet Angel's Peter Webb provides a timely guide to how to turn a losing betting strategy into a winning one...

  • Peter's guide to hitting some winners at Wimbledon

  • Laying favourites, mitigating risk and cashing out

  • Wimbledon tips every day on Betting.Betfair

As we know, there are lots of betting strategies that will end in a loss. But what if I told you that you could transform a losing betting strategy into a winning one? That's possible, thanks to the many opportunities available on a betting exchange.

Let's dive into how this can be achieved using tennis match betting as a case study.

Betting on favourites

Many strategies rely on betting on favourites without considering the over all profitability of such an approach.

Most people just back or lay favourites regardless of the odds. However, it's this kind of strategy we'll attempt to turn around.

Market efficiency

The first point to consider is the benefit of a betting market's efficiency. That is, the odds provided usually mirror the real chance of an outcome. So most strategies will break even less frictional costs.

By acknowledging this fact, you can align your betting approach with the market's efficiency, our first step to flipping a losing strategy.

Staking right

By adopting a liability staking method instead of a fixed stake, we can reduce our your losses and potentially increase our profits. For example, if we lay the favourite to a £10 liability across multiple matches, we evenly distribute our potential loss across all these games.

This staking method doesn't guarantee profit, but it allows us to frame our trading opportunity perfectly.

In essence, we limit our liability on each match to a fixed amount while opening up the possibility of earning more than we could lose.

Laying by liability is a common tactic and something that is really easy to do on Bet Angel.

Laying every favourite

During Wimbledon last year, I ran an experiment. I layed each favourite in 20 matches to see what happened.

The average price of the favourite was 1.402/5, which means that they should win 72% of the time. In the event, 75% of them won, so because I was laying I lost money. But only a tiny amount.

Laying each favourite to a £10 liability gave me a net loss of £4.96 over 20 matches. That's just over 3% of the £200 I risked.

Going from breaking even to profit

So how do we navigate from here to a profitable position? This is where the concept of 'trading out' comes into play.

Unlike traditional betting where you have to wait until the end of the match to know your fate, with the ability to cash out at any point during the game, you get the chance to secure a profit or mitigate losses.

WIMBLEDON ladies final 2023 2.jpg

One characteristic of tennis matches is that they're highly unpredictable. This provides multiple opportunities to cash out profitably within a single match.

Due to how we have staked, our losses remain fixed, but the potential upside varies and could be substantial.

Cashing out during the match

Based on the study, we found that 95% of matches could cash out at a profit at some point. By choosing the right moment to trade out, you can secure a profit from a situation that would have been a loss if left to run until the end of the match.

If we take the completely unreasonable view that we cashed out at the perfect time in the match, when the favourite hit their highest odds, then that tiny loss becomes a £300 profit.

Essentially for a fixed liability of £10 per match, we have the 'potential' for a £300 profit across all these matches.

Remember, your objective here is not to capture the maximum potential profit in every match. Instead, you aim to secure a small slice of that potential profit to overcome losses you will likely see across all your bets.

Just laying the favourite at random made a loss of £4.96, but to cover that loss, we have a trading potential of £300 profit. We only need a tiny slice of that potential to be profitable.

Using this method, the net effect is that even one successful cash-out could cover several matches' liabilities.

We have turned a loss into a profit.

When to cash out?

Finding a good place to cash out is vital for this strategy, and that is where Bet Angel can help.

When odds-on favourites struggle to dominate the early part of a match, that presents the most straightforward opportunity to cash out. Typically this would mean the favourite has a break of serve against them.

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If you fire up Bet Angel, you can use its unique Tennis Trader tool to find out what the odds are likely to be given a break of serve. You can put your closing trade at that level, even before it's reached, meaning you will get matched quickly when the match approaches that point.

Or you can cash out part of your bet and let the rest run for an even better exit. There are lots of choices.

But the most important thing to understand is that Tennis Trader will tell you where those key points are.

Strategise and adapt

Transforming a losing betting strategy into a winning one is not about being an expert, but it's all about being strategic and adaptable.

So next time you're losing money betting on tennis, remember that all might not be lost. Adjust your stakes, monitor the match, and know when to trade out. You could be just one well-placed bet away from turning your losing strategy into a winning one.


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