Wimbledon Daily Double: Goffin a value price to beat Tiafoe

For the first time, The Championships Wimbledon plays on 'middle Sunday' and finally there'll be no rest day and no 'manic Monday' where all of the round four singles matches are played on the same day.

So, we've got four matches to look at on Sunday, with Novak Djokovic taking on Dutch wildcard Tim Van Rijthoven as a 1.061/18 favourite.

And if we forget who the players are for a moment and just look at the grass court data, this price on Djokovic looks rather short.

Van Rijthoven has won all eight matches he's played on grass in 2022 and held serve 93% of the time, breaking serve 19% of the time (112 hold/break total) and his combined service points won/return points won total is 110.

Djokovic has only played three matches this year on grass, so if we take his last 10 matches, he's on a hold/break total of 124 and a combined service points won/return points won total of 116.

If we compare Van Rijthoven's stats with, say, those of Matteo Berrettini (last 10 matches on grass), we find that the Dutchman's stats are better, yet if it was Berrettini taking on Djokovic the Italian would probably be around 4.57/2 or so, I'd suggest.

He certainly wouldn't be 15.014/1 like Van Rijthoven is, so now we need to ask the question as to whether or not the Dutchman will carry on his fabulous grass season on a show court for the first time against the world number one.

He didn't show any nerves when he beat Daniil Medvedev in straight sets in the Rosmalen final and I'm pretty sure the crowd at Wimbledon will be similarly in his favour as the big underdog as they were in the Netherlands.

Given the level that Van Rijthoven has produced, which has been superb, and given also that Djokovic has never faced him before (and probably hasn't seen much of him) I think we have to attack this 1.061/18 price in some way.

It was all too easy for Djokovic against an opponent who's in awe of him, such as Miomir Kecmanovic, but I don't envisage Van Rijthoven having that level of fear, and I'm happy to back him to win a set at 2.255/4.

Alcaraz likely to continue grass progress against Sinner

Jannik Sinner came to Wimbledon with zero main draw wins on grass and with low expectations.

He said after beating a below par John Isner: "At the beginning of the week I was hoping to win just one match on grass, but now I'm in the round of 16."

Hardly the words of a potential champion and now that both he and Carlos Alcaraz have both started to find their feet on grass this clash between the pair of young stars is an intriguing one.

For me, Alcaraz has already overtaken Sinner in the race to become the dominant force in men's tennis once the current elite are retired and the Spaniard seems to be to be physically and mentally stronger than Sinner.

Alcaraz has already beaten Sinner twice (on clay and indoor hard) when he was a 3.185/40 and 3.39/4 chance respectively and now it's Alcaraz that's the favourite at 1.42/5.

That's a tad short for me given that the pair are very inexperienced on grass, but I'm still not keen to rush in and back Sinner in what could be a long and physical match.

Norrie likely to be challenged by Paul

It's tempting again to take on Cam Norrie, who wasn't really tested by a poor-serving Steve Johnson, who made only 52% of his first serves against the Brit in round three.

That's nowhere near enough and it made it all too comfortable for Norrie to prey on the weaker backhand side of the American.

Now, Norrie faces an opponent in Tommy Paul, who's not only played three left-handers in a row, but who also practiced ahead of the tournament with Rafael Nadal, so Paul is very much attuned to the lefty patterns of play.

I said a few days ago that Paul has a great record against left-handers and that now stands at 14-5 win/loss at main level, but two of those five defeats came against Norrie (career series is 2-2).

That said, both of those losses were on slow, high bouncing hard courts in Delray Beach and Indian Wells, and grass doesn't seem to be the best of surfaces for Norrie for my money.

It seems likely that Paul will be able to play his brand of first strike tennis to better effect against Norrie on grass rather on slow hard courts where Norrie has more time to defend.

Indeed, Paul's only main level win over Norrie came on a quickish hard court in Melbourne last February and I'd be surprised if Norrie won this anything like comfortably.

In terms of grass court stats (last 10 main level matches each), Norrie's combined service points won/return points won total is 106 (Paul 102) and his hold/break total is 112 (Paul 110), so it's priced up fairly accurately for me.

Goffin with the clear statistical edge over Tiafoe

As tempting as it is to take Norrie on, I prefer the risk/reward ratio in the match between David Goffin and Frances Tiafoe.

Goffin has won four of the five career meetings between this pair and he's been better in pretty much all departments in the match-up, leading the stats in all categories.

Perhaps the most telling stat is that Goffin has won 58% of his second serve points in this match-up, while Tiafoe has won only 42%.

Goffin has won more points on serve (66% compared to 59%) and held serve 10% more often than Tiafoe at 83%.

Perhaps the most telling stat is that Goffin has won 58% of his second serve points in this match-up, while Tiafoe has won only 42%

On return, Goffin has won 41% of his return points and Tiafoe has won only 34%, so there's a clear gap between them.

It's a clash of a consistent ball striker in Goffin versus a streaky one in Tiafoe and if we put the match-up to one side for a moment it's also Goffin that has the better match stats at Wimbledon.

Goffin weighs in with a combined service points won/return points won total of 106 at Wimbledon, with Tiafoe on 103.

It's also Goffin ahead in terms of career stats on grass at main level in all competitions, so I'm more than happy to take the Belgian here in what's been priced up as a 50-50 match.

So, Sunday's double (which you could use in the ''Bet £5 on tennis accas and get a free £5 bet' promotion) is: Van Rijthoven to win a set and Goffin to beat Tiafoe at 4.28.