Sinner v Djokovic: How to profit from this Wimbledon semi-final on the Betfair Exchange

Novak Djokovic
Can Sinner break Djokovic to set up a trading opportunity?

Betfair Exchange expert Peter Webb outlines potential routes to profit from Thursday's semi-final between Novak Djokovic and Jannik Sinner...

  • Tennis trading tips for Sinner v Djokovic

  • A break of serve can put odds in your favour

  • Variables of tennis ideal for locking in profits

In a tennis match there are only two players, and only one can be a winner at the end of the match. But a neat strategy on Bet Angel can ensure you can profit, even by backing both players.

Employing Bet Angel tools

Bet Angel has been tailored to enhance any tennis trading strategy, and in this article, we will use two key features to get the best from this strategy.

The first feature is Tennis Trader, which brings live scores to you at high speed and provides a projection of where it believes the price should be given any score line. This allows bettors to outline their opening and closing positions and anticipate their payoff, and that is key to this strategy.

The second tool we will use is the margin maker on the dutching tool. A unique way to capture value using the first tool!

What impact will a break have?

A central aspect of the strategy is to predict how the match's score might fluctuate. Tennis trader allows you to examine each score, game, set, and point in detail to make an informed decision. Let's look at an example.

If we look at the Sinner v Djokovic match we can see Djokovic starts at odds of 1.211/5. Tennis Trader tells us that if Sinner serves first and is broken, then the odds on Djokovic will move to 1.141/7. If Sinner breaks first, then the odds on Djokovic will move to 1.384/11.

Djokovic - Sinner first set odds.png

A break against Djokovic has a good payoff compared to one against Sinner.

It is important to note that the tool's projections are based on the condition that all variables remain the same within the market. Any unforeseen circumstances, such as player injury, are not accounted for.

Delving into Dutching

The dutching tool is commonly known as an effective way of covering large sections of a field. This essentially means splitting your stake over multiple selections to guarantee a result if any of your chosen selections win.

Traditionally, the concept of dutching seems counterintuitive in tennis betting, given there are only two possible outcomes - either player A wins, or player B wins.

However, Bet Angel has revamped this tool to open up innovative tennis trading strategies that can leverage the dutching tool's potential even in these small fields.

Capturing the value

We have already examined the potential payoff. Next, we can use the 'margin maker' to capture this value.

We go to the dutching tool, back both players, but set up one with the margin maker.

On this occasion, if we set a margin of 10% and select Djokovic as the margin maker. This tells us his odds will need to reach 1.392/5 for our bet to get matched. Basically, a break against Djokovic.

margin maker.png

We can't achieve this before the match, but we can place our bets and turn the unmatched bet into a 'Keep' bet and wait for it to get matched when the match starts.

When the bet gets matched, you will return £11.36 for your initial back bet on Janni Sinner of roughly £20.

How often does this happen?

The inevitable question is how often this happens. So I've been gathering data at Wimbledon this year to check on all the statistics.

Rounding values for better representation, so far at Wimbledon, favourites that started around 1.171/6 have all drifted at some point during their match. On average, they drift to around 1.501/2.

So this strategy has a fair chance of profiting, and in fact, we know how. If Djokovic is broken in the first set, his odds will reach our target value. But also, all Sinner needs to do is get a breakpoint or look like he is getting one, and that will also be enough to get the second bet matched.

Understanding odds movement

Examining the odds movement during a match provides valuable insights into how the betting will unfold.

While many paths exist to winning a match, the odds reflect these paths and fluctuate accordingly. This is the beauty of trading tennis. We have only examined one way this trade will work, but there are many.

Improving your odds

Managing your trade, risk, and reward is essential - a crucial aspect of active trading. Combining the margin maker and the tennis trader tool provides an optimal platform for managing your risk and reward.

We can place our bets at different prices by looking ahead at what the odds will be given certain score lines.

This nets us a profit regardless of who wins, and placing them at suitable points in the match means we will often be the winner without knowing the winner, thanks to the beautiful variability of Tennis.


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