ATP Wimbledon Pre-Draw Tips: Djokovic a swerve at odds-on

Djokovic odds-on over the field

There is little doubt that the absence of several big name players at this year's Wimbledon, for example Alexander Zverev and in particular, Daniil Medvedev, has had a rather large effect on defending champion Novak Djokovic's price for the title in the Exchange market. The Serb is currently trading at 1.9210/11, so slightly odds on, which is a little surprising for several reasons.

Firstly, Djokovic hasn't played any grass warm-up events ahead of the tournament. With dangerous unseeded floaters in the draw such as Nick Kyrgios, Djokovic will be hoping to ease his way into the event and get some grass court game-time against mediocre opposition, as opposed to a brutal round one against the likes of Kyrgios.

Furthermore, the world number three hasn't hugely impressed in what has been a disrupted year for him. He had to wait until mid-May to win his first tournament of 2022, the Rome Masters, and lost as a solid pre-match favourite against Rafa Nadal at the French Open subsequently.

For me, Djokovic at odds-on looks a pretty risky proposition.

Berrettini with better chances than Nadal or Alcaraz

Conversely, last year's runner-up, Matteo Berrettini has spent plenty of time getting used to playing on grass again, winning back-to-back warm up events. Yes, the Italian didn't beat anyone inside the top 30 in those tournaments, but he can only beat what is put in front of him and he comes to SW19 in great form. The draw will determine plenty with regards to Berrettini's chances, but he's currently 8.415/2.

Moving through the market, the Spanish duo of Rafa Nadal and Carlos Alcaraz at 9.89/1 and 12.011/1, respectively, look short.

Nadal was never close to as strong on grass compared to other surfaces, even at his peak, and comes into Wimbledon with injury doubts. Countryman Alcaraz has huge potential but has only played two grass-court matches in his entire career and I'm of the mindset to think that if he was going to take this tournament seriously, he'd have played some warm-up events.

Quartet of players with chances of a strong run

We then get to players priced up at around 20.019/1 or greater, and here's where we find some players who have performed well in the grass events which have taken place in recent weeks.

Hubert Hurkacz, Felix Auger-Aliassime, NKyrgios and after a great run in Paris at the French Open, Marin Cilic, will all have their supporters and do have a track record of performing well on either grass, quick conditions, or both. It's this quartet who I'm keen to keep an eye on in advance of the draw - they are all very capable of hitting a high level on grass.

Federer and Murray much longer-priced

Finally, there's time to discuss several legends of the game who are still currently in the outright market. Roger Federer's participation is doubtful, and after a year away from the sport with injury, you can understand why he's priced at 100.099/1 even with his grass-court pedigree.

Slightly shorter than this is Andy Murray at 85.084/1, with the Scotsman impressing in Stuttgart losing to Berrettini in the final, but also having an issue with an abdominal injury. Murray, ranked outside the top 32, will be another dangerous unseeded player in the draw who all the market leaders will be keen to avoid in the early rounds.

I'll be returning following the draw to discuss it in detail and to finalise any outright selections in what promises to be a fascinating event. However, I can't see myself agreeing with the current market line on Djokovic unless he receives an absolute gift of a draw.