ATP Wimbledon Day Four Tips: McDonald should have too much for Gasquet

Dan Weston
29 June 2022
3:00 min read

American Tennis Player Mackenzie McDonald

Mackenzie McDonald should be able to take advantage of Richard Gasquet's fatigue...

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Second round action at Wimbledon continues on Thursday with 16 matches from the bottom half of the draw. Returning to preview the day ahead is Dan Weston...

"Considering Gasquet’s advanced age and general decline this year, a five-setter lasting around three and a half hours against Joao Sousa in round one won’t be ideal preparation for this match."

Back Mackenzie McDonald at 1.794/5

Nadal among the heavy favourites on Thursday

Rafa Nadal, Roberto Bautista-Agut and Stefanos Tsitsipas headline Thursday's schedule at SW19 with all three players heavy favourites to get wins over Ricardas Berankis, Daniel Galan and Jordan Thompson, respectively, and it's difficult to envisage any of the trio of favourites being particularly tested by their opposition.

Joining those bigger names as heavy pre-match favourites are the likes of Taylor Fritz, who looks virtually certain to get past the British wild card, Alastair Gray, while Gray's countryman, Jack Draper, is also in action in the first match I'll look to discuss in some detail as he faces Alex De Minaur.

De Minaur a big test for Draper

The Australian, De Minaur, is the market favourite for the match at 1.574/7, having reached the semi-final of Eastbourne recently on grass and having beaten Hugo Dellien in relatively straightforward manner in round one.

Draper got past Zizou Bergs 3-0 where he took his chances and was a match which was more competitive than the straight-set nature of the scoreline would suggest.

This season on grass, De Minaur has a big advantage on return data, but Draper has done better on serve. Over the longer-term, it's De Minaur with excellent grass court numbers, so I think he deserves favourite status.

However, this is a great test for Draper to see where his level is at as he bids to become a main tour regular against a high quality player in their preferred quicker conditions.

Kyrgios needing to improve against Krajinovic

Draper's fellow Brit, Paul Jubb, gave Nick Kyrgios a real scare in a dramatic five-setter in round one with Kyrgios prevailing 7-5 in the final set, and Kyrgios looked notably frustrated by the resistance provided by Jubb, who normally plies his trade on the Challenger Tour.

Kyrgios faces an upgrade in opposition on Thursday with Filip Krajinovic lying in wait. The Serb got to the final of Queen's several weeks ago, losing to Matteo Berrettini in the final although he did struggle in round one against Jiri Lehecka, where he progressed in five sets despite losing six more points in the match.

This match should be a must-watch, and it's far from a given that Kyrgios will progress - particularly if he is in another volatile mood.

Cressy impressing on grass

One player I've been impressed with this grass court season is Maxime Cressy, with the American big-server knocking out sixth seed Felix Auger-Aliassime in round one in four sets. This follows a run to the final of Eastbourne, and a narrow defeat to eventual winner Hubert Hurkacz in Halle.

Cressy faces a seemingly resurgent Jack Sock who is still in the process of recovering his lost ranking but reached the semi-final and final of Challenger events before qualifying to be here. Cressy is 1.574/7 to get the win, which looks a little bit big to me, but not hugely so.

McDonald can take advantage of Gasquet fatigue

However, I'm looking towards Mackenzie McDonald for Thursday's pick, with the American beating Nuno Borges in straight sets in round one, and while McDonald didn't win back-to-back matches in the grass warm-up events, he lost against pretty competent opposition in general.

On Thursday, McDonald faces Richard Gasquet, whose first round match against Joao Sousa was his first match of the season on grass having chosen not to play any warm-up events.

Considering Gasquet's advanced age and general decline this year (he's running at below 100% combined service/return points won on all surfaces in 2022), a five-setter lasting around three and a half hours against Joao Sousa in round one won't be ideal preparation for this match, and I'm expecting the fatigue derived from that win to be a factor as the match progresses.

It's a simple fade of the five-set winner here for me, with McDonald looking some value at 1.794/5.