Wimbledon Betting: Why there will be a new winner in the women's draw

With just four former women's champions returning to Wimbledon this year, the Contrarian is captivated by odds of 2.789/5 on a new winner emerging, and has found five reasons for backing that outcome...

It is the way women's tennis works right now

It hasn't always been the case, with Serena Williams and Justine Henin having spells this century in which they were by some distance the best player on the women's tour, but at the moment, there is a genuine anyone-can-beat-anyone vibe in which no result is legitimately shocking. Whereas on the men's side, Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic have contested four successive Grand Slam finals, the last six women's editions have produced different winners, each one claiming that title for the first time. Prior to Maria Sharapova's French Open triumph, four majors in a row were won by players who had never before gone the distance at any Grand Slam.

The field of former champions is thin

The dominance of the Williams sisters in sharing nine of the 11 Wimbledon titles contested between 2000 and 2010 means that there aren't actually many former winners returning to SW19. The only other champions this century have been Sharapova, Amelie Mauresmo - who has since retired - and Petra Kvitova. By contrast, when you opt to take on the "been there, done it" brigade at the other Grand Slams, you are fighting a far bigger field, with seven different Australian and US Open winners emerging in the same period and a whopping nine clay-court queens crowned at Roland Garros.

The Williams sisters have conceded control

Whereas for a while the American siblings would miss numerous events across the WTA calendar, turn up for the big ones and still compete for titles, such effortless control is proving tougher to exert in their 30s. Despite no superstar breaking through to displace them - Caroline Wozniacki and more recently Victoria Azarenka offering glimpses, but not yet showing the required staying power - the rising number of Grand Slam contenders has made tournaments harder to boss. Venus hasn't reached one of the big four finals since losing to Serena at Wimbledon in 2009 and Serena's sole final since last winning Wimbledon in 2010 was last year's US Open, where she fought the umpire more than opponent Sam Stosur. Injury has limited her participation, however she exited this year's Australian Open in the fourth round and the French Open in round one - an unwanted career first.

Sharapova is an unreliable favourite

The Russian tops the winner market at 3.953/1 after the victory at Roland Garros that completed her Career Grand Slam and launched her to the top of the world rankings, but her record at sustaining success doesn't inspire confidence. Unlike most players talented enough to lift all four Grand Slams, she has won each just once and dragged that out over eight years, with five slams the shortest gap between any two. Serena is the only female in the last 16 years to have prevailed at Roland Garros and Wimbledon consecutively and that was way back in 2002. Sharapova meanwhile failed to get beyond the fourth round at the major following two of her three prior Grand Slam wins, and has been out before the quarters in four of her last five Wimbledon entries.

Kvitova's grass-court season has started badly

A long history of triumphant Wimbledon defences sees 2011 champion Kvitova rated 7.06/1 to retain, though the Czech suffered a first-round upset against unfancied Ekaterina Makarova in the warm-up event in Eastbourne. It is arguable that such a poor showing will be rendered irrelevant when the big business begins, however her victory last year was precipitated by a run to the final there.