Wimbledon 2012: Outsiders offer more value than Djokovic, Nadal and Federer

I get these visions. Federer wins Wimbledon. He then wins the Olympics at Wimbledon. Wiggins wins the Tour De France. He then wins the Olympic time trial. He then gets a late call-up for the track pursuit team and gets gold with them, too. Cavendish picks up a hatful of Tour stage wins. Then he wins the Olympic road race. Frankel remains undefeated throughout the summer, before retiring after a Breeders' Cup win. Kelly Brook knocks on my door unexpectedly. Then she beats me in three-straight games of KerPlunk.

Now visions aren't always reliable - I've never lost a game of KerPlunk, and never would - but it would make for a fulfilling summer, wouldn't it? Unfortunately, the editor at betting.betfair has expressly asked that we don't base our tipping around visions, so when it comes to value bets at the first of the big summer sporting stop-overs, it's probably worth looking somewhere other than Federer at 5.95/1.

And although it's very likely that Federer, Nadal (3.4549/20) or Djokovic (2.89/5) will win Wimbledon this year - after all, they've won 25 of the last 26 Grand Slams between them - it's hard to make much sense of where the value lies between the three of them. Federer is undoubtedly still capable, but is increasingly prone to losing matches he should win, and yet the other two - at around 1.51/2 coupled - look too short with him still in the draw. For me, then, it makes sense to look to some of the outsiders.

Most obviously, Andy Roddick has to be worth supporting at the enormous price of 320.0319/1. Yes, he's had a dismal season so far, beset with hamstring problems and early exits from tournaments. But it's worth remembering that, amidst those horrific performances, he has beaten Federer twice and, although, on paper, his second-round defeat at Queen's against Roger-Vasselin was disappointing, there was actually a lot to like about his performance. At the time of writing he is due to play in the final at Eastbourne, and looks to be hitting form at the right time. It's worth remembering that it was only three years ago that Roddick took Federer to 30 games in a deciding set at Wimbledon, and in what looks by far the easiest quarter of the draw, it would be no surprise to see the A-Rod make his fifth appearance in a semi-final here.

Another to have beaten Federer this year is Tommy Haas, when winning on grass in Halle. Haas might be getting on in tennis terms - he's 34 - and has slipped markedly down the rankings after taking 15 months out of the game to recover from various surgeries, but since arriving back in Europe in April, he's been in outstanding form, reaching the semi-finals in Munich and winning three qualifying rounds in Paris before going out in the third round. He knocked out Tomic, Berdych and Kohlschreiber on his way to victory in Halle and, although he has a tough draw - he meets Kohlschreiber again in the opening round and would then likely meet Nadal in the third round - there's enough reward in odds of 250.0249/1 to take an interest.

Grigor Dimitrov looked to come of age at Queen's, and in the same, weak quarter as Murray and Roddick, is another worth supporting. He has a victory over any of the top players in him on grass, and Murray will not enjoy facing him if both progress as far as round three.

Recommendations:
1pt back Roddick at 320.0319/1.
1pt back Haas at 250.0249/1.
0.5pts back Dimitrov at 360.0359/1.