Numerous contenders for the US Open title
I've often mentioned in the past that, in women's Grand Slam events, 20-30 players could legitimately consider themselves challengers with realistic ambitions of getting to the latter stages. This year's US Open is not likely to be any different.
Serena struggling in warm-up events
A few weeks ago, Serena Williams looked like a solid favourite for the tournament - certainly statistically - but she's drifted from around 4.03/1 to 6.25/1 and looks quite friendless in the market after underwhelming performances in Lexington and New York in recent weeks.
Williams played five matches in the two events, failing to win any in straight sets despite facing four opponents ranked outside the top 50. In addition, four of her sets went to tiebreaks and only two were won by a 6-2 or better scoreline, suggesting that she's not dominating opponents in the manner she has done previously.
Osaka now pre-tournament favourite
Serena has now lost favourite status to Naomi Osaka, who is at 5.39/2 at the time of writing, although the outright market a few days before the event is still a little illiquid. They are the only two players in single-digit pricing, although there are 16 players priced at below 50.049/1.
This market status is the reverse of the combined service/return points won percentage, with Williams standing at 110.1% on hard court over the last 12 months, and Osaka at 108.1%. The market is adjusting based on the recent performance levels from Williams, and that's probably fair enough.
Sabalenka among the next tier of contenders for glory
Other players with good 12 month hard court numbers include Johanna Konta, Petra Kvitova, Anett Kontaveit, Aryna Sabalenka and Madison Keys - all running at over 105%.
Konta's data is probably a little flattered by quite low quality of opposition, but it's still impressive. Sabalenka joins Osaka in impressive results against a higher calibre of opponent, so she's a player to be respected in the draw.
Those players at bigger prices who might be worthy of some interest if the draw suits them include Karolina Muchova, Sofia Kenin and the improving Ons Jabeur, who has surprised me of late - I didn't anticipate her getting so many wins against decent opponents post-lockdown.
A great deal will depend on the draw, though, and there aren't many logical contenders that I'd rule out in advance. Probably a couple would be Jennifer Brady, Maria Sakkari and Cori Gauff, who look a little over-rated by the market compared to their data, but I'm keeping an open mind in advance of this weekend when I'll return to discuss the draw and finalise my outright selections.
***
Follow Dan on Twitter @TennisRatings