Swiatek now favourite following win over Pegula
In yesterday's preview, I mentioned that Iga Swiatek's outright price was hugely dependent on her match against Jessica Pegula, for which she was priced up as a strong favourite, but still double the price of any other match she'd played in the event so far. After that straight-set win, Swiatek is now into 2.546/4 for the title, with Caroline Garcia 3.45 the second favourite.
Price on the Pole looks to be some value
It's interesting to consider that Swiatek is a bigger price to win two matches on hard court in New York than she was to win the entire French Open on clay, and I must admit I'm pretty surprised about the market line.
There seems to be this feeling that Swiatek isn't nearly as dominant as earlier in the season but she keeps on winning - and 55% of points in the match against an opponent as strong as Pegula is a positive too.
Tonight, Swiatek faces Aryna Sabalenka and is a similar price to her match against Pegula - currently trading at 1.574/7.
For me, this looks very big indeed as I don't rate Sabalenka as high as Pegula on hard court. Swiatek has better tournament data so far - particularly on return - and her hard court numbers this season are far in excess of Sabalenka's, both on serve and return.
Considering all the above, Swiatek looks a value favourite today.
Garcia continuing stunning run of form
The second semi-final looks very competitive indeed, with Caroline Garcia the slight 1.758/11 favourite over Ons Jabeur, which tells a big story of the career of Garcia in the last few months.
Tipped as a future superstar by many as a young player, Garcia never really converted that potential but has suddenly had a career turnaround at the age of 28.
Across her last four tournaments, Garcia is now 18-1 and has two titles, including winning a 1000 level event as a qualifier. Not only this, but she's won eight out of her last nine matches in straight sets, showing the level of dominance exhibited over opposition in recent matches.
Market pricing looking accurate
This isn't really the level Jabeur showed prior to this event (post Wimbledon at least) with only two wins from five matches (including a retirement loss) and while the Tunisian has only dropped one set to get to this stage, she hasn't shown that level of dominance of Garcia - particularly on serve.
Despite this, there's not that much between them still on hard court data this year overall, showing quite how much Garcia has improved - based on current form she looks like the favourite to me as well, but I can't argue too much with the market line in this second semi-final.