Jabeur justified favourite for first quarter final
Action starts at 1900 UK time tonight, with Ons Jabeur facing Ajla Tomljanovic, with Jabeur priced up at 1.528/15 to reach at least the semi-finals in her second consecutive Grand Slam following her final at Wimbledon several months ago.
Jabeur has largely breezed into this round, dropping just one set on the way, while Tomljanovic has required two underdog wins over Serena Williams and Ludmilla Samsonova to get to the quarters.
Stats-wise, it's Jabeur with the edge in the event so far, winning around 2.5% more service and return points so far, and winning a higher percentage of games, and these numbers are largely replicated on hard court throughout the season so far, and on this basis, the market pricing looks difficult to dispute.
Garcia's career turnaround quite the journey
The market finds it more difficult to favour a player in the other clash tonight, between Cori Gauff and Caroline Garcia. After a run of 12 wins in a row, and only dropping a single set in her last eight matches, Garcia is the narrow favourite at 1.865/6.
It's quite the journey for Garcia, who was a qualifier in Cincinnati before beating three top 10 opponents, picking up four underdog wins and lifting the trophy.
For a player who had been consistently inconsistent throughout her career, this represents something of a career turnaround for the Frenchwoman, although she did have an impressive summer season as well, winning titles in Warsaw and Bad Homburg.
However, the fact that Garcia was ranked in the 70s just three months ago illustrates how mediocre her general performance levels have been over the best part of the last year or two.
Gauff not that far from value
Opponent Gauff is also yet to drop a set in this event, allaying any injury doubts following her retirement in Cincinnati, and it's worth noting that the duo met six months ago on hard court in Doha, with Gauff priced up at 1.351/3 and winning in straight sets.
That pricing is a huge departure from today's lines, but while I do think the market has over-reacted slightly, the movement is obviously merited following Garcia's stunning run of results - which has impacted positively on her stats this year.
For me, this is a genuine 50/50 match. This implies some very slight value on Gauff, but not enough to be actionable - anything in excess of 2.255/4 on the American would start to look more viable.