Swiatek with tricky-looking quarter one
Jasmine Paolini is the player with the unenviable task of facing Iga Swiatek in round one of the women's singles at the US Open, and life could get tricky for the world number one subsequently, with Sloane Stephens and fast-condition specialist Ekaterina Alexandrova potentially to follow in rounds two and three.
Despite a fairly tricky draw, Swiatek's price on top of the outright market is largely unchanged compared to the pre-draw line, at a current 5.49/2.
Swiatek also has some other threats looming in round four onwards, such as Amanda Anisimova, Jelena Ostapenko, Garbine Muguruza, Petra Kvitova and Jessica Pegula, so even winning the quarter isn't a complete given. She is clearly the best player on tour, but even four 1.21/5 favourite type prices generates less than a 50% chance of getting four wins.
Osaka among those with injury doubts
Quarter two looks wide open with no clear favourite. Paula Badosa 75.074/1 has had a tough time of late but is clearly one of the better players in that bracket, while defending champion Emma Raducanu will need to serve well in order to make the latter stages - she's not even a huge favourite to beat Alize Cornet in round one.
Naomi Osaka will be a player which many fans will have high hopes for, but a back problem picked up in Toronto has scuppered her preparation for this tournament, and she's now lost five of her last six matches, in a run going back to April. Fellow injury doubt Danielle Collins could, in theory, also provide a test for Osaka in round one.
Other challengers in this fascinating quarter include Elena Rybakina, who has backed up her Wimbledon title with a solid run to the quarter-finals in Cincinnati last week.
She looks the pick out of this bracket at 24.023/1, although Aryna Sabalenka, at a similar price, will also have her supporters after making the semi-finals in Cincinnati herself. The duo are seeded to meet in round three in what would be a cracking clash.
Halep the best player in quarter three
Quarter three is bookended by second favourite Simona Halep 10.09/1 and Maria Sakkari 38.037/1, who has had a tough run of results since losing in round three at Wimbledon. This has had some impact on Sakkari's overall stats, which don't look as impressive on hard court this year as they did at points over the last 12-18 months.
Halep has great hard court numbers this year but has a potential thigh injury, which is something of an intangible heading into the tournament - however I'm leaning towards it being a precaution, given Halep's title the week before in Toronto.
This quarter has other injury doubts, with Cori Gauff being another high profile player coming in on the back of a retirement loss, while Madison Keys will have support after reaching the semi-final in Cincinnati last week. The American's serve numbers are pretty decent (107% combined service/return points won on hard court this year) and will provide resistance to Halep and Gauff in the top half of quarter three.
After two titles in three events, Caroline Garcia will also have her supporters, but we have to remember four of her wins in Cincinnati were as pre-match underdog - so her status as the current equal-third favourite in the outright market looks to be something of an over-reaction.
Beatriz Haddad Maia, who reached the final in Toronto, and Bianca Andreescu, look other options from this draw. I'm surprised to see Haddad Maia 40.039/1 twice the price of Garcia, to be honest.
Williams needing to show current ability ahead of the coming fortnight
Finally, in quarter four, Ons Jabeur, if she can recapture her form from earlier in the summer, looks well placed for a good run here at 29.028/1, while the in-form Daria Kasatkina also has the ability to get to the business end of the tournament.
World number two Anett Kontaveit should also compete well, but whether Serena Williams can is another debate - the 40-year-old is now 1-3 on her comeback this year, and was bagelled last time out by Raducanu in Cincinnati. A tough round two clash with Kontaveit awaits, should Serena get past Danka Kovinic in round one.