WTA US Open Day 6: Swiatek among heavy favourites to make round four

Williams exits as others impress

We saw potentially the end of Serena Williams' career last night, with Ajla Tomljanovic proving to be too strong in the deciding set for the American legend. This did make a mockery of Williams' status in the outright market, which was a topic of discussion over the last few days.

In other matches, Caroline Garcia impressed by knocking out Bianca Andreescu, and another player coming into this event in strong form, Ludmilla Samsonova, continued her excellent run. Cori Gauff eased into round four as well, with a surprisingly straightforward win over Madison Keys.

Swiatek among heavy favourites

The ball is now in Iga Swiatek's court to join yesterday's eight winners, being among the 16 players on court tonight looking to make round four. The Pole really shouldn't have any issues in despatching Lauren Davis, and is an overwhelming pre-match favourite to do so. Both Jessica Pegula and Aryna Sabalenka, who was close to elimination on Thursday, are today's other very strong favourites to get victories - both face qualifiers.

Kvitova justified favourite over Muguruza

Both Garbine Muguruza and Petra Kvitova have had illustrious careers, albeit not quite at the levels which took them to Grand Slam glory in the past. Kvitova has won five of their six previous meetings, albeit with five taking place between 2015-2018. With her data this year on hard court being slightly better as well, it seems reasonable that she's favourite at 1.584/7 for one of today's best matches on paper.

Pliskova needing to serve well to beat Bencic

The other match which catches the eye from a neutral's perspective is Karolina Pliskova versus Belinda Bencic, with both players currently ranked outside the top 10 but previously being inside the top five.

Bencic has struggled so far in progressing, dropping sets against Andrea Petkovic and Sorana Cirstea, and came into the event in mediocre form after struggling with an ankle problem several months ago. Pliskova's route into this event isn't much better, almost losing to Magda Linette in round one but having a number of poor defeats previously as well - although did have a run to the semi-finals in Toronto beating strong opposition.

With the forecast being for inconsistency, the market can't really split the duo, having Bencic at 1.910/11.

I actually think this could be a touch of value, given that the reason for Pliskova's struggles this year have been a sharp drop in service points won (around 4-5% from peak levels). Should that continue to be the case, it would look like a longer-term problem needing to be addressed.

Cornet and Collins tough to price up

Finally, the match between Alize Cornet and Danielle Collins looks to be a higher-variance clash than most, with both players capable of a wide range in level. For all the chat about declining veterans, though, Cornet has admirably seemed to have swerved such a decline so far, with an Australian Open quarter-final among other achievements this year.

In that quarter-final, Cornet did lose to Collins priced up at around 3.309/4, but is shorter today at 2.447/5. The question for me is whether Collins, who has really struggled in recent months and has had injury problems, is back to her best, and that's the intangible.

Yes, she beat Naomi Osaka in round one but the Japanese player also had her injury issues, and very poor losses on clay prior to missing out on the August Masters hard court series are a concern. Tough one to price up!