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class="entry_header"> <h1 class="entry_header__title">WTA US Open Day 5: Keys' serve gives her chance of shocking Gauff</h1> <ul class="entry_header__meta"> <li><a href="https://betting.betfair.com/authors/dan-weston/">Dan Weston</a></li> <li><time datetime="2022-09-02">02 September 2022</time></li> <li>3:00 min read</li> </ul> <script type="application/ld+json"> { "@context": "http://schema.org", "@type": "NewsArticle", "headline": "WTA US Open Day 5: Keys' serve gives her chance of shocking Gauff", "name": "WTA US Open Day 5: Keys' serve gives her chance of shocking Gauff", "description": "Tournament favourite Iga Świątek was among the straight-set winners from yesterday's second round matches, and Dan Weston returns to look at who will remai...", "url": "https://betting.betfair.com/tennis/us-open/wta-us-open-day-5-keys-serve-gives-her-chance-of-shocking-gauff-020922-778.html", "mainEntityOfPage": "https://betting.betfair.com/tennis/us-open/wta-us-open-day-5-keys-serve-gives-her-chance-of-shocking-gauff-020922-778.html", "datePublished": "2022-09-02T14:20:00+01:00", "dateModified": "2022-09-02T15:48:00+01:00", "articleBody": "Tournament favourite Iga Świątek was among the straight-set winners from yesterday's second round matches, and Dan Weston returns to look at who will remain in the draw from tonight's round three clashes... Sabalenka third favourite after stunning fightback Sloane Stephens was unable to put considerable pressure on tournament favourite Swiatek, although there were some cracking matches on day four which almost saw the elimination of big names. Aryna Sabalenka was 6-2 5-1 down against Kaia Kanepi, but found a way to win 6-4 in the final set. Swiatek is now into [3.65] for the tournament, with Sabalenka, quite incredibly, equal third favourite with Serena Williams at [15.5] for the title. I think this accurately illustrates how dominant Swiatek is over the field, with there being no outstanding candidate to test the Pole. However, the players from the bottom half of the draw will have a good go today, with the 16 players in that half competing for a fourth round spot. Williams far from a given to beat Tomljanovic This includes the aforementioned Williams, who is [1.73] for her meeting with Ajla Tomljanovic, in what is likely to be the 40-year-old veteran's final Grand Slam. This week so far, Williams' data isn't outstanding and the outright market price looks to be something of an over-reaction - if she was running at, say, 115% combined service/return points won in the opening two rounds, I'd be more confident of her chances. However, she's down at 107%, which isn't outstanding across two wins. Similarly priced is Ons Jabeur for her match against Shelby Rogers, whose hard court numbers have taken a turn for the better of late, with Jabeur's going the other way. Given this, it's not a big surprise to see Jabeur priced like this when a few months ago, would have likely been shorter. Andreescu slight value over Garcia In other matches, Bianca Andreescu and Caroline Garcia's match-up looks to be high variance, with both players capable of wide variety of levels, and I think 2019 winner Andreescu should be closer to even money than the [2.34] market line - my numbers have Garcia as a paper-thin favourite. Keys' serve could be the difference However, for today's pick, I'm going for Madison Keys to shock Cori Gauff. Gauff is the [2.38] favourite, and I think that's based on hype. Keys, despite having big injury issues in recent years, still has an outstanding serve and the duo have similar return data this year on hard court as well. With Keys also looking in good form in Cincinnati several weeks ago (beat Swiatek, among others) this really is a Grand Slam tournament which she should be targeting as a chance to make the latter stages. A win over Gauff should make that prospect more likely.", "image":[ "https://betting.cdnppb.net/tennis/Ajla Tomljanovic 1280.728x410.jpg", "https://betting.cdnppb.net/tennis/Ajla Tomljanovic 1280.547x410.jpg", "https://betting.cdnppb.net/tennis/Ajla Tomljanovic 1280.410x410.jpg" ], "publisher": { "@type": "Organization", "name": "Betting.Betfair", "logo": { "@type": "ImageObject", "url": "https://betting.cdnppb.net/assets/img/betfairlogoblack.ea48b4e0.png" }, "url": "https://betting.betfair.com/" }, "author": { "@type": "Person", "name": "Dan Weston", "url": "https://betting.betfair.com/authors/dan_weston" } } </script> </header> <div class="two_column_layout"> <main class="entry_main"> <div class="entry_img"> <img src="//betting.cdnppb.net/tennis/Ajla Tomljanovic 1280.728x410.jpg" srcset="//betting.cdnppb.net/tennis/Ajla Tomljanovic 1280.450x253.jpg 450w, //betting.cdnppb.net/tennis/Ajla Tomljanovic 1280.600x338.jpg 600w, //betting.cdnppb.net/tennis/Ajla Tomljanovic 1280.728x410.jpg 728w" alt="Australian Tennis Player Ajla Tomljanovic"> <figcaption class="entry_img__caption">Alja Tomljanovic faces Serena Williams tonight...</figcaption> </div> <div class="entry_actions"> <div> <a class="button button--dark" href="https://promos.betfair.com/promotion?promoCode=ACQZBGC01B10G30A&prod=90&rfr=977218">Join</a> </div> <div> <a class="button btn--market" data-market_full="https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/en/tennis/us-open-2022/keys-v-gauff-betting-31707887" href="https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/en/tennis/us-open-2022/keys-v-gauff-betting-31707887">View market</a> </div> <div class="entry_actions__social entry_actions__social--twitter"> <a href="https://twitter.com/intent/tweet/?text=WTA%20US%20Open%20Day%205%3A%20Keys%27%20serve%20gives%20her%20chance%20of%20shocking%20Gauff&url=https%3A%2F%2Fbetting.betfair.com%2Ftennis%2Fus-open%2Fwta-us-open-day-5-keys-serve-gives-her-chance-of-shocking-gauff-020922-778.html" target="_blank" title="Twitter"><span class="sprite_icon sprite_icon--twitter">Twitter</span></a> </div> <div class="entry_actions__social entry_actions__social--facebook"> <a href="https://www.facebook.com/sharer/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fbetting.betfair.com%2Ftennis%2Fus-open%2Fwta-us-open-day-5-keys-serve-gives-her-chance-of-shocking-gauff-020922-778.html" target="_blank" title="Facebook"><span class="sprite_icon sprite_icon--facebook">Facebook</span></a> </div> <div class="entry_actions__social entry_actions__social--reddit"> <a href="https://www.reddit.com/submit/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fbetting.betfair.com%2Ftennis%2Fus-open%2Fwta-us-open-day-5-keys-serve-gives-her-chance-of-shocking-gauff-020922-778.html" target="_blank" title="Reddit"><span class="sprite_icon sprite_icon--reddit">Reddit</span></a> </div> <div class="entry_actions__social entry_actions__social--whatsapp"> <a href="https://api.whatsapp.com/send?text=https%3A%2F%2Fbetting.betfair.com%2Ftennis%2Fus-open%2Fwta-us-open-day-5-keys-serve-gives-her-chance-of-shocking-gauff-020922-778.html" target="_blank" title="WhatsApp"><span class="sprite_icon sprite_icon--whatsapp">WhatsApp</span></a> </div> <div class="entry_actions__social entry_actions__social--telegram"> <a href="https://t.me/share/url?url=https%3A%2F%2Fbetting.betfair.com%2Ftennis%2Fus-open%2Fwta-us-open-day-5-keys-serve-gives-her-chance-of-shocking-gauff-020922-778.html&text=WTA%20US%20Open%20Day%205%3A%20Keys%27%20serve%20gives%20her%20chance%20of%20shocking%20Gauff" target="_blank" title="Telegram"><span class="sprite_icon sprite_icon--telegram">Telegram</span></a> </div> <div> <a class="button button--dark" href="#betslip">View the Betslip</a> </div> </div> <div class="entry_body has-odds"> <div class="entry_body__intro"><p>Tournament favourite Iga Świątek was among the straight-set winners from yesterday's second round matches, and Dan Weston returns to look at who will remain in the draw from tonight's round three clashes...</p></div> <div class="entry_body__quote"> <blockquote><p>"Keys, despite having big injury issues in recent years, still has an outstanding serve and the duo have similar return data this year on hard court as well."</p></blockquote> </div> <div class="entry_body__content"> <div class="editor"> <p><strong><h2>Sabalenka third favourite after stunning fightback</h2></strong><p><br> Sloane Stephens was unable to put considerable pressure on tournament favourite Swiatek, although there were some <strong>cracking matches</strong> on day four which almost saw the elimination of big names. Aryna Sabalenka was 6-2 5-1 down against Kaia Kanepi, but found a way to win 6-4 in the final set.</p><p>Swiatek is now into <a href="https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/en/tennis/us-open-2022/womens-tournament-betting-30898921">3.65</a> for the tournament, with Sabalenka, quite incredibly, equal third favourite with Serena Williams at 15.5 for the title.</p><p>I think this accurately illustrates how dominant Swiatek is over the field, with there being <strong>no outstanding candidate</strong> to test the Pole. However, the players from the bottom half of the draw will have a good go today, with the 16 players in that half competing for a fourth round spot.</p><p><strong><h2>Williams far from a given to beat Tomljanovic</h2></strong></p><p>This includes the aforementioned Williams, who is <a href="https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/en/tennis/us-open-2022/tomljanovic-v-s-williams-betting-31708302"><b class="inline_odds" title="8/11"><span class="inline_odds__main">1.73</span><span class="inline_odds__tooltip">8/11</span></b></a> for her meeting with Ajla Tomljanovic, in what is likely to be the 40-year-old veteran's final Grand Slam.</p><p>This week so far, Williams' data isn't outstanding and the outright market price looks to be something of an <strong>over-reaction</strong> - if she was running at, say, 115% combined service/return points won in the opening two rounds, I'd be more confident of her chances. However, she's down at 107%, which isn't outstanding across two wins.</p><p>Similarly priced is Ons Jabeur for her match against Shelby Rogers, whose hard court numbers have taken a turn for the better of late, with Jabeur's going the other way. Given this, it's <strong>not a big surprise </strong>to see Jabeur priced like this when a few months ago, would have likely been shorter.</p><p><strong><h2>Andreescu slight value over Garcia</h2></strong></p><p>In other matches, Bianca Andreescu and Caroline Garcia's match-up looks to be <strong>high variance</strong>, with both players capable of wide variety of levels, and I think 2019 winner Andreescu should be closer to even money than the <a href="https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/en/tennis/us-open-2022/andreescu-v-garcia-betting-31708632"><b class="inline_odds" title="11/8"><span class="inline_odds__main">2.34</span><span class="inline_odds__tooltip">11/8</span></b></a> market line - my numbers have Garcia as a paper-thin favourite.</p><p><strong><h2>Keys' serve could be the difference</h2></strong></p><p>However, for today's pick, I'm going for Madison Keys to shock Cori Gauff. Gauff is the <a href="https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/en/tennis/us-open-2022/keys-v-gauff-betting-31707887"><b class="inline_odds" title="11/8"><span class="inline_odds__main">2.38</span><span class="inline_odds__tooltip">11/8</span></b></a> favourite, and I think that's based on hype. Keys, despite having big injury issues in recent years, still has an <strong>outstanding serve</strong> and the duo have similar return data this year on hard court as well. </p><p>With Keys also looking in good form in Cincinnati several weeks ago (beat Swiatek, among others) this really is a Grand Slam tournament which she should be targeting as a chance to make the latter stages. 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