Women's US Open Pre-Draw Preview: 66/1 long shot Fernandez can make an impact

• In-form Sabalenka the player to beat

• Defending champion Gauff is out of sorts

• 66/167.00 Fernandez capable of a run

This has been a strange build-up to the US Open.

Although an incredible sporting event, the summer Olympics has caused havoc with the tennis schedule as when players would typically be stateside building up form on the hard courts, this year many were hacking it out on the red clay of Paris.

Many expected challengers have enjoyed limited match time on hard courts, leading to build-up tournaments in Toronto and Cincinnati having rather random outcomes.

The tournament in Cincinnati - which has a court index of 42.5 - may prove a useful form guide as courts in New York are expected to be set at a medium-fast pace (between 41 and 44).

Players have stated that the balls being used are incredibly light, and the combination of a slick track and balls that will fly will suit some, and prove disastrous for others.

Sabalenka has power to match the conditions

The outright market has correctly installed Aryna Sabalenka as favourite to win in New York 11/43.75. The Australian Open champion made the final in Cincinnati and she should be reasonably fresh mentally and physically for a tilt at this title having missed Wimbledon and the Olympics through injury.

Sabalenka had returned to tour in Washington - played the same week as the Olympics - and has built up her form over the past two weeks culminating in the Cincinnati final.

There is no bigger hitter of the ball than Sabalenka, and if conditions are as expected she will take some stopping.

Oppose defending champion Gauff

One thing I am certain of at this US Open is that I can't for the life of me envisage 7/18.00 Coco Gauff defending the Grand Slam title she claimed 12 months ago.

The American rode the crest of a wave this time last year under the tutelage of Brad Gilbert whose mantra is to 'win ugly'. It was a short term strategy that Gauff introduced to brilliant effect, as she scrapped and battled her way to victory at her home Slam.

However, in much faster conditions Gauff will be unable to defend and compete from the baseline as she had done in that run. Opponents know they can attack into her forehand wing and there is very little she can do about it as that side is incredibly vulnerable to pressure and unable to handle pace.

She has yet to notch a title in what has been a poor season, and she was blasted off the court recently at the Olympics in conditions that were much more favourable to her. At 7/18.00 she holds no appeal.

I also believe that Iga Swiatek may be vulnerable. There are only really a handful of players that can beat the Polish star, and when she has time to dictate and set the tempo there is no player that can live with her.

But conditions in New York will be slick, which is far from optimal for her. Players will target the forehand wing, which is far less impressive defensively than offensively.

The final member of the top four, Elena Rybakina, has struggled with health throughout the season and she recently missed the Olympics. Her only hard court match of this summer swing ended in a first round defeat.

I respect Rybakina and think she's an elite talent but I don't trust her fitness nor her form. She is capable of winning this but 9/110.00 is too much of a leap into the unknown.

Conditions favour former finalist Fernandez

That first round Rybakina defeat came at the hands of 2021 US Open finalist Leylah Fernandez, and I think she has a chance for another strong tournament.

The Canadian famously lost to Emma Raducanu in that final, but she showed in her equally unexpected performance that she has the personality and battling skills to thrive in New York. Fernandez relished the atmosphere in a way that her more established opponents struggled to overcome.

She will be heartened by conditions that suit her to a tee. The fast track and light balls are perfect for her, and she went well last week in Cincinnati defeating not only Rybakina, but also the in-form Diana Shnaider before a narrow 3rd set tiebreak defeat at the hands of the Jessica Pegula who also loves a fast court.

At 66/167.00 I see plenty of upside in the plucky Fernandez.

Now head to the US Open page to read my preview on the Men's tournament!