US Open Women's Singles Tips: Keep faith in market leaders to reach latter stages

• Surprising lack of support for Swiatek

• Rybakina with tough tests and fitness doubts

• Sabalenka favourite to make the final

Swiatek drifts but Gauff supported in quarter one

Iga Świątek continues to drift at the top of the tournament winner market, now trading at 3.8014/5 at the time of writing, having been around the 3.505/2 mark ahead of the draw.

Despite several underwhelming displays in the hard-court Masters tournaments, this does look like a little bit of an over-reaction, given that as I said in the pre-draw preview, Swiatek 'still has the best 12-month hard court data by a considerable distance, with a particularly large edge over other contenders on return numbers, having won over 50% of return points on the surface during this time period - a metric which none of the other players towards the top of the market can get anywhere near to.'

A projected opening three rounds of Peterson, Saville and Cocciarretto should hold little in the way of trouble, although Swiatek did pick up Cori Gauff in her bracket, which could be a real test based on the American's form of late, and general continued improvement.

Even though Gauff has been drawn in the same quarter as Swiatek, the teenager is now into 8.415/2 on the Exchange, from a pre-draw 9.617/2. I can't help thinking this is also an over-reaction.

Second and third quarters look unpredictable

While Gauff has been supported, Elena Rybakina's price has drifted with the Kazakh now out to 11.521/2 following retirement in her last match and being drawn in what looks a wide-open second quarter which also features Karolina Muchova, Maria Sakkari, Belinda Bencic and Beatriz Haddad Maia, among other threats. Given the fitness doubts on Rybakina, those players will feel confident of making the latter stages.

Favourite to win quarter three is Jessica Pegula 13.012/1, who while being seeded three avoided Swiatek and Aryna Sabalenka in her quarter, did pick up a fascinating bracket containing Marketa Vondrousova, Ludmilla Samsonova, Caroline Garcia, Madison Keys, Bianca Andreescu and Elina Svitolina.

However, a potential third-round clash for Pegula against Svitolina is a tricky hurdle to overcome early in the tournament, and there's also the presence of Cleveland finalist Ekaterina Alexandrova, who plays her final tonight, to consider as well. She stands in the potential way of Vondrousova in the third round.

Some of the early potential highlights in the quarter include those matches, plus a possible round three clash between Samsonova and Keys. With a lot of players in this bracket capable of beating each other, it's tough to predict a quarter winner and if there is going to be a long-shot making the latter stages, it could well be from this third quarter.

Sabalenka should be happy with her third quarter

Moving down the draw, I can't help but think that Aryna Sabalenka has managed to get what is not far from a dream draw. Yes, she may have to face Karolina Pliskova in round three but, with only Ons Jabeur (who she beat in Cincinnati) and Barbora Krejcikova the main threats in the quarter, and both having had some fitness issues, in terms of really tricky opposition before the final, there isn't really much.

It's difficult to envisage Sabalenka being underdog, or anything other than a fairly solid favourite at worst, against anyone before she reaches a potential final.

So, it might not be particularly glamorous but the top two in the market look to be where the value lies. Both have strong serves, necessary for a hard court Grand Slam, and decent records against top 10 opposition in the last year or so, and they are clearly the duo to beat. There aren't any side markets available yet on the Exchange, but general market prices have a Swiatek v Sabalenka final at around 8/1, which is worth considering if we can get similar as the markets evolve.