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Sabalenka into tournament favourite
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Muchova needing better serve display
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Keys' serve the secret to upset chances
Gauff with pre-match edge over Muchova
Four quarter-finals, and four straight-set victories, in what was a disappointingly one-sided quartet of matches, but there's hope for some more competitive action tonight in the two semi-finals, with Cori Gauff facing Karolina Muchova, and Madison Keys facing the tournament favourite, Aryna Sabalenka.
In the first, which is scheduled for midnight UK time, Gauff is 1.564/7 to get past Muchova, as she did in the final of Cincinnati last month. That day, Gauff was priced just in excess of 1.608/13, so there's a very slight shortening of that line but nothing too out of the ordinary.
The match focused, as it often does with two strong players, on key points. Muchova was 3/9 on break point chances, which was part of the reason as to why she fell short, but the other deciding factor was Gauff winning a markedly higher percentage of first serve points (71% to 54%).
This is broadly in line with Gauff's numbers on hard court this year, but far below Muchova's season-long 68%. A better serving display from Muchova is required if she is to make her second Grand Slam final this year.
2023 hard court data suggests the market price is pretty accurate, which is frequently the case in latter stages of Grand Slams where player ability levels are well known.
The duo have similar serve data on the surface this year, but Gauff has an edge on return (around 2% gap in return points won percentage) which makes her a justified favourite to take this. However, we do know what Muchova has to fine tune in order to improve on that Cincinnati meeting, so if she can, would stand a chance as underdog.
Sabalenka dominant to get to this stage
Whoever does make the final will be anticipated to face Aryna Sabalenka, who is a strong pre-match favourite at 1.402/5 to get past Madison Keys in the second semi-final. This was the case in the Wimbledon quarter-final, where the world number two eased to a 6-2 6-4 win priced up around the 1.501/2 mark, so the Exchange is giving Sabalenka plenty of support for this subsequent clash.
Sabalenka is yet to drop a set this tournament, and is 60-21 in games which is some achievement. The word dominant springs to mind, although she didn't really play anyone particularly decent until round four. Saying that, you can only beat what's in front of you, and she's certainly done that.
Keys needing to serve superbly to spring a surprise
Further, Sabalenka has a considerable serve advantage based on hard court data this year (holding around 7% more) and a slight edge on return too (breaking 2% more) so we are in a position where this level of market support on her really is quite merited, particularly when you take into account how much better she has been on return in this tournament as well, breaking opposition more than 60% of the time in her five matches to date.
Keys' hopes are likely to focus on a good serving display, with the American holding serve in excess of 95% in the event so far.
However, it is worth pointing out that she was 9/9 on break point chances on her serve last night against Marketa Vondrousova, and took all three on return, so there was certainly a positive variance element to that victory - replicating that won't be particularly easy against an opponent who I think is the best player left in the tournament.