US Open Women's Singles Final Tips: Sabalenka to edge Gauff in competitive final

• Competitive final anticipated

• Gauff a shorter price than previous meeting

• Sabalenka's serve makes her justified favourite

Sabalenka with slight market edge over Gauff

The Exchange market is finding it tough to split the two players in the final of the women's singles, with Aryna Sabalenka priced up as the very slight 1.910/11 favourite, and Cori Gauff a shade over even money at 2.1411/10, in a match which has the potential to be one of the most competitive Grand Slam finals for a while. Indeed, two of their previous five matches needed a final set tiebreak to decide the match.

Gauff with market support since last head-to-head meeting

Interestingly, the duo met on slower hard court conditions at Indian Wells in March, with Sabalenka easing to a 6-4 6-0 victory from a pre-match price just shy of the 1.608/13 mark, so there's a general perception from the market that Gauff's recent improvement has created a consensus that the American is much better-equipped to deal with the threat posed by Sabalenka compared to that previous meeting six months ago.

Sabalenka's edge on serve shows potential value

In the six matches which each player has won to get to the final, it's actually Sabalenka with the marginally better data - she's won around 3.5% more service points in conjunction with virtually identical return numbers, and this also factors in the bagel she suffered at the hands of Madison Keys in the opening set of their semi-final.

This dynamic virtually mirrors the 2023 hard court data comparison between the two players. Again, Sabalenka has better serve data with a tiny disadvantage on return numbers, so to me it looks like there's slight value on her at the current market lines.

Given the fact that Sabalenka earned her first Slam title at the Australian Open this year (also as a slight pre-match favourite in the final), there's certainly less pressure on her to finally get the job done on the biggest stages. Gauff is still searching for her first Slam title, having lost the French Open final in 2022 to Iga Swiatek, so I like the chances of the more experienced player, Sabalenka, to edge what should be a pretty competitive final.