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Boulter fighting to continue British interest
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Market anticipating close clash between Samsonova and Keys
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Jabeur not far from value
Sabalenka leading the day six card
There are another eight matches on the Saturday schedule in New York, with players from the bottom half of the draw in action as they bid to reach the last 16, and week two. On what looks like a more evenly-matched schedule to day five, when the third round got underway, the only big name who is a heavy favourite is Aryna Sabalenka, who faces the French player, Clara Burel.
Boulter a slight underdog against Stearns
The one remaining Brit in the draw is Katie Boulter, and she could realistically continue British interest in the women's singles given that she has a winnable match against the improving American, Peyton Stearns.
21-year-old Stearns was ranked outside the top 200 at the start of the year, but after bossing ITF events early in the season, she made her first WTA final in Bogota albeit against a weak field. She also dominated Clara Tauson in round two, and her losses in recent tournaments (Garcia, Kasatkina, Fernandez, Pegula, Vondrousova) have been against good players.
I think Stearns has a higher ceiling than Boulter, although Boulter has won a WTA title this year, on grass in Nottingham. Stearns also beat Boulter in Austin by two tiebreaks to one, with both players priced at around even money apiece. Today, Stearns is shorter at 1.784/5 currently, which looks about right to me.
Samsonova a live underdog against Keys
Moving on, there's a fascinating clash between Liudmilla Samsonova and Madison Keys, with the more experienced Keys having a marginal market edge at 1.875/6.
This looks about right to me, with Samsonova having an edge on serve this year on hard court numbers, but Keys winning a higher percentage of return points and breaking opposition more as well. Both players are yet to drop a set in the tournament, but I do feel that Samsonova has a high ceiling and an underdog win should not be ruled out.
Jabeur with edge over Bouzkova
Finally, Ons Jabeur is 1.774/5 to get past the threat of Marie Bouzkova, a much bigger price than the Tunisian was at Wimbledon last year in the quarter-finals. That day, Jabeur beat Bouzkova 3-6 6-1 6-1 priced at around the 1.3030/100 mark, so there's a sizable difference between then and now.
Bouzkova came into the tournament with fitness doubts, having lost by first set retirement to Karolina Muchova in Cincinnati, but is yet to lose a set so far. Jabeur was tested by the high potential prospect Linda Noskova on Thursday, but came through 6-3 in a decider.
Data suggests that Jabeur has a decent edge on return numbers, which is enough to warrant favourite status. At prices, my lean is towards Jabeur, but it's not quite enough to consider a recommendation.