US Open Women's Semi-final Preview and Tip: Back comfortable Sabalenka win at Evens

• Sabalenka hot favourite to win first US Open

• Conditions don't favour Navarro

• Pegula Muchova semi-final tough call

Aryna Sabalenka is in incredible form and it will take a sizeable upset for her not to book a place in a second consecutive US Open final.

Conditions suit Sabalenka to a tee and she has steamrolled past one opponent after another to book her semi-final spot.

It feels unlikely that Emma Navarro can stop the Sabalenka bandwagon, and unsurprisingly the Belarusian is a short 2/91.22 to reach the final.

Match on Sabalenka's racket

Emma Navarro has had an impressive run to the semi-final, no doubt about it. Victories over Marta Kostyuk, Coco Gauff and Paula Badosa were hard won. But Sabalenka is a different kettle of fish.

In each of those wins Navarro had a significant say over the outcome, able to at least play the match on her terms. Her attacking shots were accurately executed and she showed a greater stomach for the pressure moments than both a double faulting Gauff and a choking Badosa who crumbled in set two from 5/1 up.

Sabalenka has the biggest game on tour and if she gets it right there is no obvious solution. The closest a player got to troubling her in this tournament was Ekaterina Alexandrova who goes for her serve and tries to end rally points quickly. That nabbed her a set, but Sabalenka still won the other two 6/2 and 6/1. When she's on a roll how do you stop Sabalenka?

Navarro does hold a victory over Sabalenka on a hard court. However, that was achieved in the unique hybrid court setting of Indian Wells. That tournament is an anomaly on the calendar as although it is a hard surface the desert conditions favour those players with a hybrid clay-hard game. Typically successful clay courters play well there as evidenced by Iga Swiatek winning two of the previous three editions.

On a more conventional hard court, such as that in New York it is clear that Sabalenka should have the advantage.

Sabalenka crushed Navarro when they met at the French Open earlier this season, and it is difficult to see past a similar outcome on this occasion. Navarro's best chance in this match-up is to prolong rallies and draw out the mistakes from Sabalenka. Conditions are too quick in New York for that to be a repeatable strategy.

Getting juice on Sabalenka

Handicap markets are expecting Sabalenka to win this by a healthy margin and although I don't disagree there is too much risk implied on such short prices and at such high thresholds. For example, although I think backing Sabalenka to win -5.5 games at 6/42.50 is a runner, that demands the Belarusian to play a near perfect match and in a semi-final that is no easy task.

A market that is easier to enter is the total match games market that has been set at a generous 20.5 games. Sabalenka can win this match 6/4 6/4 or anything better and your bet will win at 1/12.00. You therefore win the bet provided that Sabalenka wins in two sets, winning by only a -3.5 game margin or better.

That feels more reasonable to me so I suggest backing Under 20.5 total match games.

Muchova has a chance versus Pegula

As a tennis fan it is pleasing to see the latest comeback from Karolina Muchova go to plan. The Czech player is a special talent that has made the semi-final or better in three of the four Grand Slams.

Unfortunately she has accumulated more injuries than titles in her career, missing long stretches of recent seasons before embarking on a tilt at a major crown.

This tournament she has yet to drop a set, hurdling comfortably through a tough draw including two time US Open champion Naomi Osaka who played a good match in defeat, and French Open and Wimbledon runner-up Jasmine Paolini.

The worry with Muchova is that there is always some disaster lurking around the corner. In her semi-final she was ill and had had to leave the court three times in set two for a bathroom break. Even then, she still won comfortably against Beatriz Haddad Maia.

Muchova lost to her semi-final opponent Jessica Pegula in Cincinnati, but conditions were super fast and ideal for the American. Pegula is having a good run herself with a fine win over Iga Swiatek last night the highlight result.

I was not at all surprised by Pegula's win as she knows how to defeat Swiatek on a hard court that has some bite to it.

The question is how fit is Muchova? Has her energy been depleted by her stomach troubles over the past 24 hours?

If she's in good enough shape she should find the more moderate hard court conditions more to her liking than in their Cincinnati match. Pegula has yet to appear in a Grand Slam final and I'm unconvinced that she will be able to handle that pressure.

There are too many unknowns to take a stab at this one before a ball is hit, but I would rather be on Muchova at 5/42.25 who has the superior talent and the know how to reach a major final.

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