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Swiatek and Sabalenka lead the contenders
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Gauff backed in to third favourite
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Several bigger-priced players to keep an eye on
Świątek still a solid favourite for the title
Despite failing to win titles in either of the prestigious hard-court warm-up events, Iga Swiatek remains a solid pre-draw favourite in the women's singles, priced up at 3.5551/20 at the time of writing on the Exchange. Having traded as low as 3.309/4, there's been a very, very slight drift on the world number one ahead of the draw, which is understandable given the recent context mentioned.
Even though Swiatek lost in the semi-finals in both those tournaments (Pegula in Montreal, Gauff in Cincinnati), the Pole still has the best 12-month hard court data by a considerable distance, with a particularly large edge over other contenders on return numbers, having won over 50% of return points on the surface during this time period - a metric which none of the other players towards the top of the market can get anywhere near to.
Gauff supported following Rybakina retirement
So, in my view it would be questionable to go against Swiatek as favourite and she has enough credit in the bank to warrant favourite status once again for a Grand Slam tournament. In fact, before the last week or two there was a similar dynamic with the top three in the market, with Swiatek leading Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina, who are often extremely closely priced as co-second favourite for major events.
This was more the case recently before Rybakina retired last time out in Cincinnati, and while the Kazakh going into a Slam with an injury doubt has been seen before, I think the market movement makes sense.
The main support in the market has come for Cori Gauff 9.617/2 who has been backed in to win her first Grand Slam title after winning in Cincinnati, and emerging victorious against Swiatek in the semi-final. Further, Gauff won the title in Washington against high-calibre opposition without dropping a set.
Finally, could we see Gauff's performances match the hype? I'm certainly stronger on her chances here than I have ever been in a Grand Slam, where her data certainly didn't match up with her market pricing in the past (in my view, she was priced on potential, not current ability) and she will be a player to watch in Thursday's draw, where as a non-top four seed, could be a volatile draw for the American.
Pegula and Vondrousova worth watching
Following Gauff in the outrights is Jessica Pegula 13.012/1, another recent title winner. The American won in Montreal several weeks ago, beating Gauff,
Swiatek and Samsonova en route to the title, and has good hard court pedigree. Pegula is another player I'm relatively keen to keep onside at this stage.
The other player I'm pretty unwilling to oppose is Wimbledon winner Marketa Vondrousova who is bigger-priced at 32.031/1. Since then, she's not got to the semi-finals in either of the hard court warm-up tournaments, but was beaten by Gauff and Swiatek in those so it's not like she's lost to poor opposition. These players are all realistically capable of beating each other on a given day.
Several young prospects with high potential
Of the other players in the market, worth watching are Ludmilla Samsonova 75.074/1 who is prodigiously talented but still inconsistent, and the 16-year-old phenom Mirra Andreeva. Samsonova made the final in Montreal, beating Rybakina, Bencic and Sabalenka to get to that stage, but was routined by Pegula in that final, showcasing that big potential but also her inconsistency.
As for Andreeva, there's a general market fear surrounding her. Ultimately, we don't know what her level will be on hard court because she's only played one main tour match in her career on the surface, and missed the August Masters events. What we do know is that she took to grass pretty quickly and she has an absurdly high ceiling, which is why the market has her at 70.069/1 right now.
Most of the other players in the market have significant questions to answer in terms of recent level, ability to beat top-level opposition, and often more relevantly, fitness. But this preview should give you an interesting shortlist to follow for tomorrow's draw, and I'll be returning over the weekend to run through that in detail.