Saturday's focus at the US Open is the women's singles final, and what an incredible match is in prospect. Emma Raducanu bids to be the first British winner of the US Open since 1968...
"It's not huge value, but I do like the chances of Raducanu to be celebrating a historical Grand Slam title tonight, and in what has been a pretty successful women's tournament for this column, Raducanu is my final recommendation."
Raducanu and Fernandez with incredible journeys to make the final
If you managed to pick the two women's singles finalists before the tournament started, consider buying a lottery ticket tonight. Emma Raducanu has traded at [500.] on the winner market on the Exchange, and Leylah Fernandez even higher - the Canadian has traded at 1000.0 on the outrights.
Raducanu even needed to qualify in order to make the main draw, being ranked at 150 before the tournament started - she only just made the seeded list for the qualifiers! In what has been a simply stunning run from the start of qualifiers, she's won nine matches in a row in straight sets, although it is fair to say that she's not faced a single opponent ranked inside the top ten, so the draw has opened up for her to a slight extent.
Conversely, Fernandez has had to get to the final the hard way. She's defeated three top-ten players - Aryna Sabalenka, Elina Svitolina and Naomi Osaka - and has needed to achieve five underdog victories. She even was an underdog in her opening match against Ana Konjuh. Fernandez has also needed to brave four deciding sets in her last four wins, including a final set tiebreak against Svitolina.
Raducanu favourite to be the first Brit since 1968 to win the US Open
The pathways of their respective players illustrate quite how unlikely it was for them to make the final, and this is genuinely the biggest shock final in a Grand Slam that I can remember.
Raducanu is the pre-match favourite at 1.625/8 to become the first British winner of the US Open since Virginia Wade in 1968, over 50 years ago. That day, Wade defeated Billie Jean King 6-4 6-2 and I'm sure Raducanu would be delighted with a similar outcome, which would see her win the tournament winning 10 matches without dropping a set having qualified.
Working out whether a qualifier had ever won a Grand Slam without dropping a set would take me a while to find out, but I'd be amazed if it had.
Hard court data makes the Brit some slight value
Let's have a look at the two player's data on hard court this year. Both players have virtually identical service points won percentages around the 60% mark, but Raducanu has won around 7% more on return and that makes her a clearly justified favourite to make history today. Not only this, but she has a markedly higher sets won percentage, games won percentage and points won percentage as well.
Based on the above, I actually think that Raducanu is some slight value here today. My model has her at 1.4740/85 to win the title, and the market pricing is obviously a bit bigger than this. It's not huge value, but I do like the chances of Raducanu to be celebrating a historical Grand Slam title tonight, and in what has been a pretty successful women's tournament for this column, Raducanu is my final recommendation.
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Dan Weston's US Open Profit/Loss