Four matches in the women's singles take place at the US Open today and, after picking up another winner on Sunday night, Dan Weston previews the pick...
"The Pole has won a higher percentage of service and return points on hard courts this season - I have Swiatek as a stronger favourite than the market."
Fernandez shocks Kerber to give us a Sunday success
Leylah Fernandez covered the game handicap against Angelique Kerber and shocked the German in a deciding set to progress to the quarter-finals. There she will meet Elina Svitolina who defeated Simona Halep.
There were also wins for Barbora Krejcikova and Aryna Sabalenka, which sees Sabalenka shorten to 4.03/1 outright favourite, with all of Svitolina, Karolina Pliskova and Barbora Krejcikova priced between 8.07/1 and 9.08/1 as the second tier of market favourites.
Four players will be eliminated tonight, so the outright prices on today's winners will shorten, and it will be interesting to re-evaluate the market in advance of the quarter-finals. Here are my thoughts on today's fourth round matches.
Swiatek with edge over Bencic
Belinda Bencic 2.0621/20 v Iga Swiatek 1.9310/11: I've mentioned previously in this tournament that I think Bencic is over-rated by the market and this is the case again, in my view, against Swiatek who has far more upside than her opponent. Not only that, but the Pole has won a higher percentage of service and return points on hard courts this season - I have Swiatek as a stronger favourite than the market, and while it's not huge, it's my pick for today.
Raducanu facing strong test from Rogers
Shelby Rogers 2.447/5 v Emma Raducanu 1.684/6: Raducanu has been absolutely fantastic so far in this tournament and demolished Sara Sorribes Tormo in the third round. However, she should find a tough opponent in Rogers, who is very competent and has had a pretty solid last 12 months or so herself.
Raducanu is the favourite, and I agree she should be, but what is most interesting is that Rogers is 75.074/1 on the outright whereas Raducanu is 16.015/1, which is strange given the match pricing. I'm not recommending it myself, because I think the match pricing is fine, but anyone wanting to back Rogers might want to do it on the outright as opposed to the match pricing here.
Pliskova favourite over Pavlyuchenkova
Karolina Pliskova 1.645/8 v Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova 2.506/4: Pliskova is a similar price to Raducanu, and again, that looks about right to me. The Czech, Pliskova, has won six of their eight previous meetings, although Pavlyuchenkova has won the last two, but it's also worth pointing out that Pliskova has been in good form of late, reaching a number of semi-finals and finals in high-level events, including at Wimbledon.
Pavlyuchenkova hasn't really been tested so far but was a sub 1.3030/100 favourite in all three of her matches to get to this stage, so let's see what she can do against a considerable upgrade in opposition.
Sakkari versus Andreescu promises to be an intriguing clash
Maria Sakkari 1.674/6 v Bianca Andreescu 2.447/5: There's another marginal favourite here, and that's Sakkari with the market edge over Andreescu who probably has more upside but hasn't really shown it consistently since her long-term injury.
Pre-injury, Andreescu had unbelievable hard court data for a player of her age, and that level would make her a big pre-match favourite here, but there's just not that much evidence from her data that she's there currently. This match is probably going to start pretty late for European viewers, but it could be well worth a watch.
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Dan Weston's US Open Profit/Loss