US Open Women's Day 7 Tips: Fernandez can back up Osaka win by testing Kerber

German Tennis Player Angelique Kerber
Angelique Kerber looks over-rated by the market today...

The women's singles at the US Open is down to the last 16, and with four matches taking place today, our tennis columnist, Dan Weston, is back to give his thoughts on the Sunday schedule...

"I'm not a huge buyer of the current version of Kerber, who is just over 101% on combined service/return points won on hard court this year."

Barty exit opens up outright market

Following Saturday's matches, the major talking point was the exit of tournament favourite Ash Barty, who was stunned by the American, Shelby Rogers. Barty was a double break up in the deciding set before Rogers fought back to edge the tiebreak and leave the outright market significantly disrupted.

In the absence of the Australian, plus with Naomi Osaka exiting on Friday night, the outright market is wide open. Aryna Sabalenka 5.79/2 is the new tournament favourite, with Karolina Pliskova 9.28/1 the next best. Every other player is in double-digit pricing, including the young British star Emma Raducanu, who demolised Sara Sorribes Tormo yesterday and has now been backed into the 14.013/1 sixth favourite to lift the trophy - she faces Rogers tomorrow in a bid to make the quarter-finals.

Market finding it tough to split Svitolina and Halep

Elina Svitolina 1.9520/21 v Simona Halep 2.0421/20: Up first on today's card is a fascinating clash between two top-ten regulars, and the market has found it very difficult to split the duo. My numbers make Svitolina a very marginal favourite, coming into the match on an eight-match unbeaten run following her victory in the Chicago warm-up event. Halep has had some injury issues and it will be interesting to see whether she can find an extra gear, which she may need, against the Ukrainian.

Fernandez can back up Osaka triumph

Angelique Kerber 1.374/11 v Leylah Fernandez 3.65: Fernandez shocked the tennis world with her victory over second favourite for the tournament, Naomi Osaka on Friday, and this was her second underdog victory of this week after she ousted Ana Konjuh in round one as a slight underdog. While Fernandez's results in the run-up to the US Open have been rather hit and miss, she's been known as a young player with high potential for a while now, and actually has won a main tour event on hard court this year, in Monterrey.

Despite being a pre-match favourite in all three of her matches so far, Kerber has struggled to get to this stage, needing a final-set tiebreak to win her opener against Dayana Yastremska, while having to come back from a set down to beat Sloane Stephens in round three. I'm not a huge buyer of the current version of Kerber, who is just over 101% on combined service/return points won on hard court this year, and at almost 34 years of age, it will be interesting to see whether there will be a decline in level. Fernandez +4.5 games is 5/6 with The Sportsbook, and this looks a good line to me.

Sabalenka faces tricky test from Mertens

Elise Mertens 3.55 v Aryna Sabalenka 1.384/11: Tournament favourite Sabalenka faces a tricky test from the Belgian, Mertens, who can exhibit a very high level on hard courts. While Mertens hadn't impressed hugely in the run-up to the US Open, she picked up an excellent victory over the much-improved Ons Jabeur on Friday in round three - picking up a winner for us - and her longer-term numbers suggest that she's a top ten hard courter. I'm interested to see the extent which she can test Sabalenka here, with the Belarussian's price as favourite looking pretty short to me.

Krejcikova with slight edge over Muguruza

Barbora Krejcikova 1.845/6 v Garbine Muguruza 2.166/5: This looks like being a superb clash featuring two high-calibre players. French Open champion Krejcikova is the marginal favourite, and that looks about right to me, with hard court data this giving her an edge (derived from service numbers). I did wonder whether Krejcikova might have been priced at around even money or as a slight underdog here, with the market potentially favouring the bigger-name Muguruza, but credit to the market - I think they've got this one right.

***

Follow Dan on Twitter @TennisRatings

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Dan Weston's US Open Profit/Loss

Staked: 12pts
Returned: 13.52pts
P/L: 1.52pts

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