After Kaja Juvan provided Dan Weston with a US Open day one winner our tennis tipster aims to go two from two on Tuesday with 32 first round matches on the card...
"My model has Sakkari as favourite, at 1.684/6, but that's a fair bit bigger than the market price, and Kostyuk was about as tough an unseeded player to draw as she could have got."
Kaja Juvan eased past Heather Watson in straight sets to give us a winner at around even money yesterday, and most of the heavy favourites made round two, including the likes of Naomi Osaka and Aryna Sabalenka.
There are plenty more higher profile players taking to the court on Tuesday, and they include
Ashleigh Barty 1.051/20 vs Vera Zvonareva 19.018/1.
Tournament favourite Barty is strongly fancied to dispose of the veteran Russian Zvonareva. Numbers-wise, Barty is the best player in the field and it would be a real surprise if she didn't make round two.
Zvonareva may also not be in perfect condition, having been given a walkover against Sara Sorribes Tormo last week in Cleveland, so a straightforward victory for Barty looks the most likely outcome.
Big step up for McNally against Pliskova
Karolina Pliskova 1.132/15 vs Catherine McNally 8.207/1
Pliskova is another overwhelming favourite today, but looks slightly short against the young American. The markets - both today and outright - appear to be of the view that Pliskova is back to her best, having reached the final of Montreal and the semi-final in Cincinnati.
McNally looked like a young player of very high potential in 2019 but has struggled since the tour resumed last summer, and while there is likely an upside to come from the 19-year-old, it would be a big step to consider her defeating the fourth seed today.
There doesn't appear to be a huge amount of value on today's schedule, but these two spots look likely to be the best, according to my model.
Kostyuk capable of shocking Sakkari
Marta Kostyuk 3.2011/5 vs Maria Sakkari 1.444/9: Sakkari is a solid favourite here, but the market is pricing this up on her reputation, as opposed to understanding how good Kostyuk is, and can be.
Kostyuk is likely to be better than Sakkari within two years, and her numbers overall are excellent on hard courts - particularly for a player still to reach her 20th birthday. My model has Sakkari as favourite, at 1.684/6, but that's a fair bit bigger than the market price, and Kostyuk was about as tough an unseeded player to draw as she could have got.
Badosa and Van Uytvanck struggle with fitness
Paula Badosa 1.261/4 vs Alison van Uytvanck 4.507/2: I'm not sure about Badosa being such a short favourite today at these current market prices.
The Spaniard, who is known more for being a very strong clay courter as opposed to hard courter, has retired twice in her last three tournaments, including her last in Cincinnati with a shoulder problem, and I wouldn't want to be on side with her.
Van Uytvanck has also had injury issues, retiring last week in Chicago, so it's guesswork who will be the fittest here, but I'd rather keep an underdog onside as opposed to the favourite in this scenario, and the market price on Badosa is short.
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