US Open Quarter-final Preview and Tips: Draper and Medvedev capable of reaching last four

• Medvedev vs Sinner could determine winner

• Can Jack Draper reach the semi-final?

• 2/13.00 Russian appeals against under pressure Sinner

The night match at the US Open on Wednesday is the most important of the whole tournament. The winner of Jannik Sinner and Daniil Medvedev's quarter-final will have passed what is arguably the biggest hurdle between them and a second major title.

The duo have met in a Grand Slam twice this year, with each claiming a victory in five sets. It is one of the most intriguing match-ups currently in men's tennis between the two best hard court players of the sport.

While Jannik Sinner has earned his favouritism, I think Daniil Medvedev has a much better chance than the odds suggest.

Before that, Britain's Jack Draper has a winnable quarter-final against Australia's Alex de Minaur. Will he reach a first Grand Slam semi-final?

Form and fitness favour Draper

In statistical terms there has been no better player than Londoner Jack Draper at the US Open.

He has dropped only 26 games in total to get to the quarter-final and has yet to concede a set. Draper may have avoided any elite level players to make his major quarter-final debut, but he has been very impressive in beating those put before him.

This is possibly the ideal time to play Alex de Minaur. The Sydneysider has been able to grind his way through to the quarters, but he remains under an injury cloud as this is his first singles tournament since withdrawing from his last eight meeting with Djokovic at Wimbledon.

There have been signs that De Minaur isn't quite right, but like Draper he has benefitted from a favourable route to this stage of the tournament. Speaking of his condition he said, "Coming in, I didn't have too many expectations. The hip wasn't close to 100%. It wasn't feeling amazing."

He is clearly still feeling the effects of it and if Draper can repeat the performances of the previous rounds he has a good chance here.

Draper may yet to have tasted victory over De Minaur across their three previous meetings but he should be heartened by the closeness of those matches.

The first was a couple of years ago at Wimbledon and the Englishman is much improved since then. Last year in Tokyo he was edged out in a couple of tiebreaks, and in Acapulco he retired due to injury. In each match he has taken a set.

This will likely be a physical contest of long rallies and the past has shown there is very little to pick between them. Draper's progress up the rankings has stagnated due to his physical conditioning but he is definitely improving in that regard, and unlike their previous encounters he will be the fresher man at this stage of the tournament.

Draper was rock solid against Tomas Machac in the previous round. The Czech confirmed Draper's form by saying, "This court is perfect for him. I think I should have prepared a little better for it. Anyway, the whole tournament suits Jack, he's playing great tennis. I think he can easily reach the finals."

It might become a scrap but Draper has a good shot here against De Minaur and I think there's value in him emerging in more than three sets. Back Jack Draper to win and both players to win a set at 15/82.88.

Perfect conditions for Daniil

Medvedev has had a near perfect tournament to this point. The Russian has barely broken sweat, enjoying the baseline duels afforded by the medium paced conditions and balls that have proven difficult for most players to control.

This tournament has produced a higher than usual number of double faults from its competitors such is the tricky nature of the balls. Medvedev however has used this volatility to his advantage orchestrating his opponent's from the back of the court.

Other than a dropped set in his opening encounter with Dusan Lajovic, Medvedev has been completely untroubled by his opposition. He has mastered the conditions.

His record in Grand Slams is exceptional having reached the final of the last two hard court Grand Slams, and he holds a winning head to head record over players ranked world number one.

Medvedev is underrated for his ability to construct an impactful strategy to whittle down the chances of his opponent. Whilst his tennis is often described as reactive, he is known to mix up his patterns to exploit what he assesses as a weakness in his opponent.

He used to lead the head to head against Sinner by six wins to zero, having found a perfect formula of dragging the Italian wide as often as possible to encourage misses from Sinner's attacking game.

Clearly Sinner has improved as a player and has since won five of their next six meetings. Medvedev's explanation for this is that Sinner is missing far less than he used to before.

It was a surprise to everybody at the Australian Open when Medvedev came out hyper aggressive against Sinner in that final, bursting into a two sets to love lead. This approach was taken in part due to the fatigue accumulated by the Russian throughout an energy intensive tournament, but it was notable how unprepared Sinner was for Medvedev's tactics.

At Wimbledon, their most recent match, Medvedev had once again found a way to win bettering Sinner over five sets. He was able to manage the ups and downs of Sinner, balancing his energy levels better than his opponent and outfoxing him in the deciding set.

It is at the Grand Slams where Medvedev is cunningly executing his smartest tactics rather than in the grind of the tour. Why would he reveal his hand to Sinner in less important matches?

There is also the factor of the crowd. Over the years Medvedev has cultivated a special relationship with the Arthur Ashe crowd famously incurring their wrath by shooshing them and ramping up their booing. He revels in that situation, and over time the crowd has warmed to him. It would not surprise me if he can control a crowd that is ready to boo Sinner following his failed doping test.

I fancy that Medvedev will have an idea of how to make life uncomfortable for Sinner and if his playbook goes to plan he has every chance of winning this match.

Number one under the spotlight

World number one Sinner started the tournament in a negative spotlight, as news of a doping violation was revealed in the days leading up to the start of the Open.

He got off to a shocking start in his first match against Mackenzie McDonald but he has been impressive since then demonstrating the hard court form that has taken him to the summit of the men's game.

Unquestionably if Sinner plays his very best level there is no player that has proven they can beat him on a hard court this season. His only defeats this season on a hard court were against Carlos Alcaraz in the hybrid hard court conditions of Indian Wells, and when undercooked against Andrey Rublev in Montreal.

For the rest he has been in a league of his own, notching titles in Melbourne, Miami and Cincinnati. It is right that he is favourite to win this tournament.

However, I think it remains to be seen how strong his resolve will be under pressure and in light of his off-court situation.

If any player can test the backbone of Sinner it is surely Medvedev. Speaking of this match Sinner suggested that he expects a battle saying, "Tough match. It's gonna be a lot of rallies. Hopefully I'll be ready physically. It's gonna be a physical and mental match. I won in Australia. He won in Wimbledon.. both in 5 sets. Hopefully it will be a good match. We'll try to do our best on court. Hopefully you guys enjoy it and we'll see how it goes."

With plenty in the tank - unlike in Australia - and in perfect conditions and with the crowd on his side I can see a route to victory for Medvedev.

It won't be easy but I can see the Russian faring better than the odds indicate, and altogether I find the 2/13.00 price on Medvedev an intriguing proposition.

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