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Alcaraz expected to ease past Arnaldi
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Sinner the pick against Zverev
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Draper with chance to continue British progress
Alcaraz a heavy favourite to make quarter-finals
Novak Djokovic eased into the quarter-finals, where he will face Taylor Fritz, on Sunday evening with three of the four heavy pre-match favourites making it through. Disappointing, though, was Tommy Paul in a four set loss to Ben Shelton, who again has made a random run through to the latter stages of a hard court Grand Slam despite struggling in general tour events.
Players looking to join Djokovic in the quarter-finals include main rival Carlos Alcaraz, who faces Matteo Arnaldi and is just 1.031/33 to get the win over the young Italian. For Arnaldi to get the win, he will need a fourth consecutive underdog win here and at much bigger prices.
Sinner a tough test for Zverev
Arguably the match of the day is Alexander Zverev versus Jannik Sinner, with Sinner having the market edge at 1.618/13. Sinner has had the easier path to this stage, dropping just the one set (to Stan Wawrinka in round three) while Zverev's sets have generally been tighter - he needed to win a second set tiebreak against Grigor Dimitrov on Saturday to avoid going two sets down in that match.
When I was making my pre-draw notes about the contenders for this tournament, my perception of Zverev is that he needs a higher gear to test the very best. Sinner is getting towards that level - he's running at over 108% combined service/return points won on hard court this year - and those numbers are far in excess of Zverev's on the surface in 2023. I think Sinner should be shorter-priced for this clash.
Medvedev drifting after previous loss to De Minaur
Moving through the draw, Daniil Medvedev is 1.434/9 to see off the threat of Alex de Minaur, with the duo having already met less than a month ago in Toronto. That day, De Minaur nicked a close 7-6 7-5 triumph, with Medvedev priced up at around the 1.351/3 mark.
The market has seen fit to ease out Medvedev's price following that loss, even in a five-set match where the 'better player' tends to be shorter priced. That judgement, however, looks about right to me. Medvedev has much better serve data but De Minaur does have a slight edge on return numbers.
Draper with underdog chance to keep British interest going
Finally, British hopes in the tournament now rest with Jack Draper, and the 21-year-old has a chance of further progress, albeit as an underdog. Opponent Andrey Rublev is one round away from potentially going 0-9 in Grand Slam quarter-finals, and is 1.4640/85 to get the opportunity to snap that streak with a win over Draper.
I've been really impressed with Draper here, having had low expectations after injury issues in recent months, although Rublev will be a further step up to anyone he's faced so far. However, Draper has good hard court numbers this year and there's certainly potential for an upset tonight.