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Big names expected to ease through
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Underdog Thiem the pick
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Little else inspires on mismatched card
Djokovic among numerous strong favourites on day three
Monday's winners continue their US Open on Wednesday, including the likes of Novak Djokovic, Stefanos Tsitsipas, and Taylor Fritz, who all breezed through lower-ranked opposition in straight sets. All are heavy favourites for their round two matches against players with a significant ability differential. Dumped out on Monday, though, was Holger Rune and Lorenzo Musetti among others as some seeds failed to progress.
Thiem showing higher level than Shelton
There aren't an abundance of close-looking matches on day three, but one which the market is finding it difficult to split the two players is Dominic Thiem versus Ben Shelton. We successfully faded Shelton on the game handicap on Monday against Pedro Cachin, while Thiem picked up a morale-boosting straight sets win over the 25th seed, Alexander Bublik.
Could this signal a Thiem renaissance? His supporters would like to think so, and it comes off the back of reaching the final in Kitzbuhel (albeit with his wins coming against players ranked outside the top 50) at the start of the month.
I have significant doubts whether he will ever come close to his best again, but he shouldn't need to against Shelton, who hasn't impressed of late after his breakthrough quarter-final at the Australian Open where he didn't beat a single player inside the top 60 as the draw opened up.
Indeed, if Shelton had lost in the opener in that Slam, he'd be ranked around the 85-90 mark currently, which is more in line with his data this year. The American's main issue is his return game, where he has won less than 30% of return points on hard court this season, and my data suggests Thiem should be a slight favourite for this. Instead, he is 2.186/5 to get the win.
Qualifier Mensik slight favourite for French double
Another match with a slight market favourite is the battle of two qualifiers, Titouan Droguet and Jakub Mensik, who both tend to ply their trade on the Challenger Tour, and have recently broken into the top 200.
Droguet has picked up some decent results in Challenger events on clay lately, and did very well to make round one, where he shocked Lorenzo Musetti in five sets in a match lasting almost four hours. Fellow qualifier Mensik needed around three-quarters of an hour less to get past Frenchman Gregoire Barrere, and he has the opportunity for a French double here at 1.728/11.
17-year-old Mensik, a former junior number three and former Australian Open junior finalist, has already picked up a notable scalp in qualifying - Fabio Fognini - and looks to have a higher upside than Droguet. However, the odds look about right to me, with Mensik's superior return game making him a justified favourite.
These two matches are the only ones on Wednesday with the favourite priced up much in excess of 1.501/2, so a lot of mismatches are anticipated, with a lot of higher-profile players expected to ease into round three without an abundance of difficulty.