US Open Men's Semi-Final Tips: Zverev may trouble Djokovic but favourite should win

German Tennis Player Alexander Zverev
Alexander Zverev faces Novak Djokovic this evening...

It's semi-final day in the men's singles at the US Open, with Daniil Medvedev and Novak Djokovic heavy favourites to meet in Sunday's final. Dan Weston returns to give his thoughts...

"Zverev comes into the match last having lost at Wimbledon - to Auger-Aliassime - and has now amassed a 16 match unbeaten run."

Harris gives us a Wednesday winner

Wednesday's quarter-finals went the way of Alexander Zverev and Novak Djokovic, with the world number one dropping the opening set again for the third time in the tournament against Matteo Berrettini, before reeling off three consecutive 6-2 sets to defeat the Italian. Zverev needed one set fewer to get the better for Lloyd Harris, but the South African did manage to cover the 6.5 game handicap to get us a winner and continue our successful tournament.

The duo meet in the second semi-final today, and prior to this, the first match features Felix Auger-Aliassime and Daniil Medvedev, who had an extra rest day following their quarter-finals on Tuesday.

Medvedev a clear favourite

Felix Auger-Aliassime 6.005/1 v Daniil Medvedev 1.192/11: The tournament second favourite, Medvedev, is a very heavy favourite to make the final by defeating Auger-Aliassime in semi-final one, and it's tough to dispute that.

On hard court, Medvedev wins around 3% more service points this year, and has around a 6% edge on return, so he is an undoubted clear favourite over the Canadian, who got past Carlos Alcaraz Garfia via retirement in the quarter finals. Auger-Aliassime had a fairly tricky few events, with a number of poor defeats, in advance of Cincinnati where he made the quarter-finals in his last warm-up event before the US Open.

All things considered, I'd be very surprised if there was a shock here and the match is on Medvedev's racquet - he's dropped just one set so far in the tournament (against Botic van de Zandschulp in the quarter-finals).

Djokovic and Zverev both boast unbeaten runs

Novak Djokovic 1.434/9 v Alexander Zverev 3.309/4: World number one Djokovic has had a poor record in the opening set this tournament and he will need to make sure he starts better against a high quality opponent who would be less likely to let him back into the match as the lower ranked players Djokovic has started slowly against.

Zverev comes into the match last having lost at Wimbledon - to Auger-Aliassime - and has now amassed a 16 match unbeaten run. He definitely has shown a lot more of late and can't be coming into a match against Djokovic in better form, but the problem is that the world number one is 26-0 in Grand Slams this year and on hard court, isn't far off being unbeatable.

The market still has Djokovic as a fairly strong favourite, and I agree with this. We'd need to see Djokovic be below par and Zverev at his best for an underdog victory, but it's not out of the realms of possibility that this could occur. I think this could be closer than the first semi-final.


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