US Open Men's Quarter-Final Tips: Harris can push Zverev

Serbian Tennis Player Novak Djokovic
It will be fascinating to see the extent Novak Djokovic is tested by Matteo Berrettini...

The remaining two men's singles quarter-finals at the US Open take place on Wednesday so Dan Weston previews both matches and picks his best bet...

"Harris has beaten Karen Khachanov, Denis Shapovalov and Reilly Opelka in this tournament, and he also beat Rafa Nadal a month ago, so should come into the match confident that he can test Zverev."

Djokovic still marginally odds-on for the tournament

Daniil Medvedev and Felix Auger-Aliassime - via retirement over Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - were the Tuesday winners in the men's event at the US Open, which leaves the remaining two market favourites, Novak Djokovic and Alexander Zverev, to play their quarter-finals today.

Djokovic still leads the outright market at 1.9010/11, which is a slightly bigger price than his pre-tournament starting price.

Harris looking like game handicap value

Alexander Zverev 1.171/6 v Lloyd Harris 6.6011/2: First on court today is Zverev, who takes on the South African, Lloyd Harris. Of course, it's unsurprising that Zverev is the strong market favourite here but I want to point out that Harris is no mug on hard court and his 2021 numbers on the surface have him at over 103% combined service/return points won, making him clearly a top 25 player on hard.

Harris has already got the better of Karen Khachanov, Denis Shapovalov and Reilly Opelka in this tournament, and he also beat Rafa Nadal a month ago in Washington, so should come into the match with huge confidence that he can at least test Zverev.

In their meeting in Cincinnati in August, Zverev was priced at around 1.351/3 to get the win and that's where I think today's price should be closer to, so Harris looks like a bit of value. He's 1.875/6 on the Exchange with a 6.5 game head start, which looks like a decent spot to me.

Djokovic could well be tested by strong-serving Berrettini

Novak Djokovic 1.152/13 v Matteo Berrettini 7.206/1: Similarly priced to Zverev is Djokovic who looks a few ticks short but nothing particularly noteworthy for his meeting against Matteo Berrettini.

When they met in the final of Wimbledon, Djokovic was priced at around 1.251/4 to lift the trophy and I think a similar price is justifiable today.

Berrettini is a strong server and has won around 2% more service points than Djokovic on hard court this year. The world number one has a sizeable advantage on return where he wins 5.5% more points than the Italian.

Djokovic has dropped sets in this tournament against far worse opposition than Berrettini and it wouldn't shock me if the Serb dropped at least another one here. I am hoping for two close quarter-finals tonight, and I think we may get them.


Follow Dan on Twitter @TennisRatings

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