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Djokovic ahead of Alcaraz in the outrights
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Draw to decide plenty for Sinner
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Quarter-winner potential among long-shots
Djokovic with support following Cincinnati title
Following his victory in Cincinnati, Novak Djokovic is now into the pre-draw favourite for the US Open, with the Serb currently trading at 2.546/4, and his rival in that final, Carlos Alcaraz, slightly further back at 2.8815/8 in what is a really liquid market at the top end of the Exchange.
It's interesting to note that prior to Cincinnati, Alcaraz was the tournament favourite for that event ahead of Djokovic, and traded as the favourite to win the event consistently throughout the week. However, the struggles of Alcaraz in Cincinnati, where he dropped a set in every round prior to the final, and in the previous week in Toronto, have been correctly recognised by the market leading to this reversal in market status.
Those struggles have had a negative impact on the Spaniard's hard court numbers for the year. In comparison, Djokovic relatively breezed to the Cincinnati final, in his first tournament since Wimbledon, and improved his data - so you'll get no argument from me on the order of the duo right now on the Exchange.
Medvedev and Sinner lead the remaining field
Implied odds suggest that there is almost a 75% chance of the names of either Djokovic or Alcaraz being engraved on the trophy in several weeks time, and every other contender is at double or triple-digit pricing right now. Daniil Medvedev 11.010/1 and Jannik Sinner 16.015/1 are the only two players shorter than 36.035/1 at the time of writing.
Sinner has better recent form, but is ranked outside the top four currently which makes his draw potentially more problematic - he could face either Djokovic or Alcaraz earlier in the event than Medvedev could. Not only this, but Sinner could need to beat all three of the top three in the market to win the title, as opposed to Medvedev who due to the structure of the draw, will only need to beat a maximum of two.
With this in mind, it's understandable as to why Sinner is priced slightly bigger, despite having a higher recent level - but the draw will give insights into potential pathways to the latter stages on Thursday afternoon.
Zverev, Rune, Ruud and Rublev fail to inspire
Of the longer-priced contenders in the top 15 in the market, I'm not keen on Alexander Zverev 38.037/1 at these prices, given that I think that the German needs to find a higher level to compete with the best currently, while Holger Rune 80.079/1 hasn't really impressed on hard court yet in his career.
Casper Ruud and Andrey Rublev, who are both priced at 110.0109/1, have other problems - Ruud is in a bit of a rut right now following his defeat in the French Open final, while Rublev is 0-8 in Grand Slam quarter-finals and will likely have the mental baggage that comes with such a record.
Potential quarter winners a post-draw avenue
However, there are a few players worth considering as potential quarter winners if they get a reasonable draw (one that doesn't contain Djokovic at least in their quarter).
Taylor Fritz 110.0109/1 has picked up a hard court title lately in Atlanta, and has generally impressed this season. He has been beaten soundly by Djokovic recently though, so has an extra gear to find against the best, but could he beat a Medvedev, for example? I think it's definitely possible.
Hubert Hurkacz 100.099/1 has impressed me recently with several very close losses against Alcaraz in the high-profile Masters warm-up events for this tournament, and has a good form line after reaching the semi-final in Cincinnati.
Finally, Alex De Minaur 270.0269/1 comes into the tournament with good form, having reached finals in Los Cabos and Toronto, and will potentially benefit from an easier week last week in Cincinnati where he probably was pretty fatigued.
Punters could pick up bigger prices on several of those players with offers in the market, and they are certainly a few players to keep an eye on ahead of tomorrow's draw. Following that, I'll be returning over the weekend to run through the draw and finalise any outright selections.