US Open Men's Day 7 Tips: Markets accurate as fourth round begins

British Tennis Player Dan Evans
Dan Evans is the remaining Brit in the US Open men's draw...

There's just four men's singles matches on the US Open schedule on Sunday, and heavy favourites feature in three of them. Dan Weston returns to run through the day ahead...

"Medvedev is yet to drop a set in the tournament, and has dropped just 22 games across the nine sets he’s won so far."

Favourites largely progress on day six

With the exception of Denis Shapovalov, who was defeated by Lloyd Harris, favourites got the job done yesterday in New York, with wins for the likes of Alexander Zverev, Matteo Berrettini and Novak Djokovic. Jenson Brooksby continued his breakthrough Slam as well, and he now faces the tournament favourite Djokovic tomorrow.

Before this, there's four matches today as the fourth round gets underway. Action, as it has done this week, begins at 1600 UK time. With only four matches on the card, I'll run briefly through each one with my thoughts.

Schwartzman a touch short against Van de Zandschulp

Botic van de Zandschulp 4.707/2 v Diego Schwartzman 1.261/4: Van de Zandschulp should break into the top 100 following his run to at least the fourth round here, but there's still something of a ranking gap between the Dutchman and his opponent today, Diego Schwartzman, who finds himself just outside the top 10 at the time of writing.

The market has the Argentine as a strong favourite and I think it's a little short against an opponent who has impressed to get to this stage, with a huge underdog win over Casper Ruud in round two. However, there's not enough of a differential between market and model pricing for me to get excited here, and unfortunately that is rather a theme of day's schedule, which is often the case for the latter stages of Grand Slams where player levels are often rather exposed.

Evans with difficult test ahead

Dan Evans 19.0018/1 v Daniil Medvedev 1.051/20: Evans has done well to stay in this tournament so far, having needed a real fightback against Alexei Popyrin, but the chances of British interest in the men's singles event is likely to be zero after today, when he faces the tournament second favourite, Daniil Medvedev. Medvedev is yet to drop a set in the tournament, and has dropped just 22 games across the nine sets he's won so far - this tells an accurate story regarding the difficulty of the test for the British number one today.

Alcaraz Garfia should be too good for Gojowczyk

Peter Gojowczyk 4.607/2 v Carlos Alcaraz Garfia 1.271/4: Our hero from Friday, Alcaraz Garfia, is the heavy favourite to progress and that looks about right to me against the German journeyman, Gojowczyk. The Spaniard suitably illustrated his stunning upside with that five set win over third seed Stefanos Tsitsipas and it would be a surprise if he was brought back down to earth by Gojowczyk, who qualified to be here and has subsequently won three matches across 14 sets, all as an underdog. I'd expect youth to prevail over experience here.

Auger-Aliassime a justified favourite over Tiafoe

Frances Tiafoe 2.568/5 v Felix Auger-Aliassime 1.635/8: The Canadia, Auger-Aliassime, is the market favourite here and I agree with this line - my model has him at 1.594/7. Both players got through five-set tests as an underdog on Friday, with Auger-Aliasssime beating Roberto Bautista-Agut while Tiafoe shocked Andrey Rublev. Both might be rather fatigued following those exertions, potentially leaving the third quarter of the draw wide open, with Alcaraz Garfia having the potential to come through that bracket next week.

***

Follow Dan on Twitter @TennisRatings

No Cash Out Suspensions on Tennis Match Odds!

We are now offering no Cash Out suspensions for match odds markets on the Sportsbook for all ATP and WTA matches. Excludes medical timeouts, T&Cs apply.

Dan Weston's US Open Profit/Loss

Staked: 12pts
Returned: 13.52pts
P/L: 1.52pts

Get a Free £/€20 Exchange Bet

  • Join Now - Open account using promo code VAL225
  • Bet - Place a £/€20 Bet on the Exchange
  • Earn We'll Refund You £/€20 If the Bet Loses
Bet now

T&Cs apply.

Discover the latest articles

Read past articles