US Open Day 8 Preview and Tip: Back Improving Draper to break new ground at 7/5

• Londoner is on the up

• Machac in good form

• 7/52.40 tip smart way to keep Draper onside

Filling the shoes left behind by Andy Murray is no mean feat. After all, the Scotsman did something that no other men's player from the UK could do between 1936 and 2012 by winning a Grand Slam.

Now that Murray has called it a day his first succession candidate is London's Jack Draper, who is having a breakthrough season. Draper is constantly improving and he feels on the cusp of taking another step forward in his career.

There is good reason to be excited that Draper will become a top 10 player before too long and potentially challenge for Grand Slam titles in the not too distant future. Before a ball is hit he is favoured to reach a first major quarter-final, which he would achieve with victory over Tomas Machac.

It won't be easy but I agree with his favouritism, although he's much too short on the moneyline [2/5] to win against a talented opponent that holds a positive head to head record. However, I've got a value angle of attack.

Draper best data in tournament

According to the combined hold and break percentages scored by players through their first four matches there has been no stronger player than the Brit.

He has held serve in an impressive 97% of his service games, while breaking in a healthy 47% of return games. Of course neither number will be sustainable the longer Draper hangs about in this tournament but it is certainly a good marker of his form to this point.

Draper has a controlled game style that is a nightmare to play against as he is highly consistent from the back of the court and the angles and spins he can generate from his left handedness rattles the rhythm of his opponents.

He is playing confidently and has been demonstrating potent firepower that has been too hot to handle for his defeated opponents this week - Zhizhen Zhang, Facundo Diaz Acosta and Botic van de Zandschulp.

Is the Czech player really playing well?

I don't write off the chances of Tomas Machac, who is riding the momentum of an Olympic Gold medal this summer, won alongside his girlfriend Katerina Siniakova in the mixed doubles event.

His immediate hard court form following the Olympics was poor, losing first round clashes in Montreal and Cincinnati to Alexei Popyrin and Max Purcell respectively.

The Czech stated that court conditions at the two warm-up events were not to his liking, but he has adapted his game to New York more successfully in straightforward wins against Fabio Fognini, Sebastian Korda and David Goffin.

Although he's yet to drop a set it's fair to say that his run this far couldn't have been much easier, with veteran duo Fognini and Goffin uncompetitive and Korda hampered by injury.

Machac is a quality player who himself is climbing the rankings. His star-making shot is his backhand from which he has a variety of options, and I'm sure that he can bother Draper at least for spells throughout this contest.

Machac has more match wins

Draper is overdue victory against Machac. He has lost all three of their previous meetings, although the Englishman was the better player for much of the two most recent meetings played at ATP level.

I don't put great value in the head to heads but rather in the way players match-up.

Players are constantly modifying their game to improve their level. In both of their recent matches Draper was the significantly better player from the baseline but squandered winning positions. A combination of fitness and confidence played their part in the eventual Machac victories, but I feel that the more mature and fitter Draper should be more ready this time.

It won't be easy though, Machac has a very similar hard court rating to Draper - identified by a combination of data points and results - and there won't be a great deal to pick between them.

A 7/5 pick to support Draper's edge

Overall I expect Draper to justify his favouritism here but that Machac will be competitive throughout. The best way to turn that into a bet is by siding with Draper to win and both players to win a set at 7/52.40.

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